You hear a lot about the idea of a sophomore slump -- productive rookies falling off a year later. But how common is it? I took a look at how running backs have fared this century. Later in the week I'll do the same with wide receivers.
There's no definitive threshold for what constitutes rookie year success, but I went with running backs who rushed for over 800 yards in their first seasons. Since 2000, there have been 56 first-year backs to have done so, including four in 2022: Dameon Pierce (pictured), Isiah Pacheco, Kenneth Waker and Tyler Allgeier.
Table shows each of those players' rookie year stats, including their fantasy rank in PPR leagues, and how they fared the next season -- run, rec, TD and fantasy ranking in Year 2. Two of those players (Jamal Lewis and J.K. Dobbins) missed their entire second seasons due to injury.
Of the other 50 players, just over half (27) came back and rushed for at least 800 yards again. That's respectable. But nearly as many (24, including the two who missed the entire season, and a whole bunch of other injured guys) declined by at least 300 rushing yards in their next seasons. Not all of those players were disappointments (6 were top-20 fantasy backs), but enough of them were to explain why the notion of a sophomore slump is so popular.
In the table, sorted by Year 2 rushing yards, running backs who declined by at least 300 rushing yards in their second seasons are tagged with black dots.
800-YARD ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS, ONE YEAR LATER (2000-) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | Rec | TD | Rk | Nxt(Ru-Re-TD) | Rk |
2008 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1228 | 260 | 10 | 11 | 2006-503-16 | 1 |
2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 1169 | 299 | 12 | 6 | 1811-360-20 | 1 |
2007 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1341 | 268 | 13 | 5 | 1760-125-10 | 9 |
2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1236 | 367 | 10 | 6 | 1683-489-15 | 2 |
2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 1508 | 364 | 17 | 7 | 1591-314-14 | 6 |
2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 996 | 149 | 10 | 17 | 1494-278-8 | 8 |
2013 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 860 | 399 | 8 | 15 | 1361-854-11 | 1 |
2012 | • Alfred Morris, Was. | 1613 | 77 | 13 | 7 | 1275-78-7 | 20 |
2003 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 1031 | 351 | 8 | 14 | 1188-588-14 | 3 |
2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1178 | 257 | 11 | 8 | 1139-427-13 | 6 |
2008 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 836 | 47 | 10 | 33 | 1133-139-11 | 15 |
2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1313 | 298 | 7 | 10 | 1122-125-9 | 15 |
2006 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1081 | 325 | 8 | 13 | 1072-364-15 | 4 |
2019 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 889 | 185 | 7 | 24 | 1070-438-10 | 4 |
2019 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 1150 | 166 | 7 | 21 | 1065-238-12 | 8 |
2007 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 1115 | 184 | 7 | 16 | 1036-300-9 | 13 |
2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1200 | 467 | 10 | 3 | 1034-229-10 | 14 |
2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 1037 | 241 | 10 | 13 | 1011-196-7 | 20 |
2005 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 907 | 232 | 5 | 23 | 1008-276-5 | 22 |
2018 | • Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1307 | 721 | 15 | 2 | 1003-438-8 | 11 |
2004 | Julius Jones, Dall. | 819 | 109 | 7 | 31 | 993-218-5 | 19 |
2016 | • Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1631 | 363 | 16 | 2 | 983-269-9 | 12 |
2008 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 1238 | 477 | 12 | 2 | 929-471-4 | 12 |
2018 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 931 | 50 | 6 | 34 | 912-94-7 | 31 |
2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1106 | 188 | 10 | 9 | 885-327-6 | 15 |
2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 818 | 509 | 6 | 15 | 867-197-6 | 23 |
2017 | • Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1327 | 455 | 11 | 4 | 824-378-14 | 12 |
2005 | • Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 1178 | 81 | 6 | 21 | 798-196-1 | 36 |
2014 | • Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 1124 | 215 | 9 | 10 | 794-79-12 | 20 |
2010 | LeGarrette Blount, T.B. | 1007 | 14 | 6 | 34 | 781-148-5 | 33 |
2009 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 947 | 213 | 9 | 18 | 779-372-8 | 18 |
2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 941 | 436 | 16 | 8 | 768-407-10 | 11 |
2020 | • James Robinson, Jac. | 1070 | 344 | 10 | 7 | 767-222-8 | 24 |
2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 976 | 286 | 8 | 17 | 747-415-5 | 21 |
2001 | • Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 1183 | 178 | 7 | 17 | 721-163-6 | 34 |
2004 | • Kevin Jones, Det. | 1133 | 180 | 6 | 21 | 664-109-5 | 32 |
2011 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 897 | 183 | 2 | 30 | 663-251-4 | 26 |
2012 | • Trent Richardson, Cle. | 950 | 367 | 12 | 8 | 563-316-4 | 32 |
2002 | • William Green, Cle. | 887 | 113 | 6 | 33 | 559-50-1 | 49 |
2020 | • Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 803 | 297 | 5 | 22 | 517-129-6 | 43 |
2012 | • Doug Martin, T.B. | 1454 | 472 | 12 | 2 | 456-66-1 | 57 |
2017 | • Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1040 | 302 | 10 | 10 | 439-185-6 | 41 |
2008 | • Steve Slaton, Hou. | 1282 | 377 | 10 | 7 | 437-417-7 | 27 |
2015 | • Thomas Rawls, Sea. | 830 | 76 | 5 | 37 | 349-96-3 | 61 |
2013 | • Zac Stacy, St.L. | 973 | 141 | 8 | 21 | 293-152-1 | 68 |
2021 | • Elijah Mitchell, S.F. | 963 | 137 | 6 | 26 | 279-7-2 | 82 |
2021 | • Javonte Williams, Den. | 903 | 316 | 7 | 17 | 204-76-0 | 81 |
2001 | • Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 1104 | 224 | 10 | 12 | 157-62-1 | 91 |
2012 | • Vick Ballard, Ind. | 814 | 152 | 3 | 33 | 63-(-5)-0 | 132 |
2000 | • Mike Anderson, Den. | 1487 | 169 | 15 | 11 | 386-167-4 | 44 |
2020 | • J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 805 | 120 | 9 | 24 | Injured | -- |
2000 | • Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 1364 | 296 | 6 | 18 | Injured | -- |
2022 | Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 939 | 165 | 5 | 25 | ??? | ??? |
2022 | Isiah Pacheco, K.C. | 830 | 130 | 5 | 37 | ??? | ??? |
2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 1050 | 165 | 9 | 18 | ??? | ??? |
2022 | Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 1035 | 139 | 4 | 30 | ??? | ??? |
If we want to go strictly by fantasy ranking, slightly over half (27) of those 52 came back and put up top-20 numbers in their second seasons, and six more at least finished in the top 30. That's about 63 percent who were quality starters in Year 2. I think we can say that sophomore slumps are real, but not daunting enough that anyone should be afraid to draft Pierce, Pacheco, Walker and Allgeier on that basis. Statistically speaking, 2-3 of them should be pretty good again in 2023.
--Andy Richardson