Around the NFL

March 20, 2024

Mike Williams

Jets add (former?) deep threat

The Jets signed Mike Williams to a one-year contract yesterday, bringing him in to give the team a far better No. 2 than they had a year ago (when Aaron Rodgers convinced the team to sign Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb). I think it's fair to wonder, though, if Williams is the player he was at his best.

I have the same questions about 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who of course tore his Achilles a few plays into last season. They've upgraded the offensive line and signing Williams makes their weapons in the passing game look a little more promising. But they can't make the quarterback any younger, and it's like people saw Tom Brady winning a Super Bowl in his 40s and thought that wasn't an anomaly.

But whatever, let's say for the sake of discussion that Rodgers can stay healthy. Williams is being described as a downfield weapon, and he certainly has some of that on his resume. But he's coming off a torn ACL and turns 30 during the season, so he might not be quite as imposing in that area as he used to be. Even before blowing out his knee last season, he'd been trending downward.

Back in 2019, in his first full season as a starter, Williams averaged over 20 yards per catch. That's best among all wideouts with at least as many targets (85) in the past five seasons. A 1,000-yard season on just 49 catches -- really remarkable stuff.

In his three other healthy seasons in that time frame, he hasn't been quite as impressive -- and it's been a steady downward trend. About 16 yards per catch in 2020 (still very good), then 15 per catch in 2021, and 14 per catch in 2022. Williams tore his ACL in Week 3 in 2023.

I don't want to overrate this trend, considering 14 yards per catch is still an above-average number. But even if we're assuming Williams is fully healthy in September, I don't think we should be expecting him to be taking the top off defenses every week, either. New York will need much better line play for that to even be in the realm of possibility. New tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses give hope that will be the case, but it's not a given.

Table shows the top performers among 85-target wide receivers the last five seasons in terms of yards per reception.

WIDE RECEIVER YARDS PER RECEPTION, 2019-2023
Year	Player	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	Avg
2019	Mike Williams, LAC	90	49	1001	2	20.4
2019	Kenny Golladay, Det.	116	65	1190	11	18.3
2021	Deebo Samuel, S.F.	121	77	1405	14	18.2
2023	George Pickens, Pitt.	106	63	1140	5	18.1
2022	Jaylen Waddle, Mia.	117	75	1356	8	18.1
2020	DJ Moore, Car.	118	66	1193	4	18.1
2021	JaMarr Chase, Cin.	128	81	1455	13	18.0
2019	Stefon Diggs, Min.	94	63	1130	6	17.9
2023	Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.	105	75	1342	7	17.9
2022	Gabe Davis, Buff.	93	48	836	7	17.4
2023	Amari Cooper, Cle.	128	72	1250	5	17.4
2019	Mike Evans, T.B.	118	67	1157	8	17.3
2022	A.J. Brown, Phil.	145	88	1496	11	17.0
2023	DK Metcalf, Sea.	119	66	1114	8	16.9
2019	Michael Gallup, Dall.	113	66	1107	6	16.8
2019	DeVante Parker, Mia.	128	72	1202	9	16.7
2019	Chris Conley, Jac.	90	47	775	5	16.5
2020	Jerry Jeudy, Den.	113	52	856	3	16.5
2023	Nico Collins, Hou.	109	80	1297	8	16.2
2021	Tyler Lockett, Sea.	107	73	1175	8	16.1
2021	Van Jefferson, LAR	89	50	802	6	16.0
2020	Justin Jefferson, Min.	125	88	1400	7	15.9
2023	Mike Evans, T.B.	136	79	1255	13	15.9
2019	Terry McLaurin, Was.	93	58	919	7	15.8
2023	Justin Jefferson, Min.	100	68	1074	5	15.8
2020	Mike Williams, LAC	85	48	756	5	15.8
2021	A.J. Green, Ari.	92	54	848	3	15.7
2020	DK Metcalf, Sea.	129	83	1303	10	15.7
2019	DK Metcalf, Sea.	100	58	900	7	15.5
2019	Chris Godwin, T.B.	121	86	1333	9	15.5
2022	Terry McLaurin, Was.	120	77	1191	5	15.5
2019	Courtland Sutton, Den.	124	72	1112	6	15.4
2020	A.J. Brown, Ten.	106	70	1075	12	15.4
2020	Calvin Ridley, Atl.	143	90	1374	9	15.3
2022	Davante Adams, L.V.	180	100	1516	14	15.2
2020	Corey Davis, Ten.	92	65	984	5	15.1
2023	Tyreek Hill, Mia.	171	119	1799	13	15.1
2021	Mike Williams, LAC	129	76	1146	9	15.1
2019	Amari Cooper, Dall.	119	79	1189	8	15.1
2020	Darius Slayton, NYG	96	50	751	3	15.0
2019	Robby Anderson, NYJ	96	52	779	5	15.0
2021	Justin Jefferson, Min.	167	108	1616	10	15.0
2022	Amari Cooper, Cle.	132	78	1160	9	14.9
2023	Deebo Samuel, S.F.	89	60	892	12	14.9
2019	Tyreek Hill, K.C.	89	58	860	7	14.8
2021	Tee Higgins, Cin.	110	74	1091	6	14.7
2019	John Brown, Buff.	115	72	1060	6	14.7
2020	Tyreek Hill, K.C.	135	87	1276	17	14.7
2022	Mike Evans, T.B.	127	77	1124	6	14.6
2021	Chase Claypool, Pitt.	105	59	860	2	14.6
2022	Jerry Jeudy, Den.	100	67	972	6	14.5
2022	Chris Olave, N.O.	119	72	1042	4	14.5
2020	Mike Evans, T.B.	109	70	1006	13	14.4
2022	Tyreek Hill, Mia.	170	119	1710	9	14.4
2021	DeVonta Smith, Phil.	104	64	916	5	14.3
2020	Michael Gallup, Dall.	105	59	843	5	14.3
2023	DJ Moore, Chi.	136	96	1364	9	14.2
2022	Mike Williams, LAC	93	63	895	4	14.2
2020	Brandin Cooks, Hou.	119	81	1150	6	14.2
2023	Puka Nacua, LAR	160	105	1486	6	14.2
2019	Jarvis Landry, Cle.	138	83	1174	6	14.1
2022	Justin Jefferson, Min.	184	128	1809	9	14.1
2022	DJ Moore, Car.	118	63	888	7	14.1
2023	DeAndre Hopkins, Ten.	137	75	1057	7	14.1
2023	Jaylen Waddle, Mia.	104	72	1014	4	14.1
2019	Julio Jones, Atl.	157	99	1394	6	14.1
2020	Chase Claypool, Pitt.	109	62	873	11	14.1
2023	Diontae Johnson, Pitt.	87	51	717	5	14.1

--Andy Richardson

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