The top incoming college quarterbacks are making team visits this week, with the most uncertainty around Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. Caleb Williams is going to Chicago, but it's not certain which of the other two Washington likes more. The expectation is that the other will land in New England.
Louisiana State coach Brian Kelly inadvertently mentioned Washington while Daniels a week ago, leading to speculation that he had some inside information, but the latest betting odds slightly favor Maye. (The NFL encourages teams to create mystery to increase the draft-day drama; most likely Washington has made its decision.)
The common thread with the two quarterbacks is their athleticism. Both were prolific runners in college -- among the more productive of all quarterbacks selected in the first round this century. It's more of a staple of Daniels' game, but Maye was also very willing to make plays with his legs.
Comparing them to other running quarterbacks to come out of the first round, recent history suggests it will take them a year to, er, get up to speed. Most other prolific college runners tended to start out slow, not delivering their top production until Year 2.
Table shows first-round quarterbacks this century who rushed for at least 400 yards in their final years of college. (The first four columns show those college stats.) Daniels was the far more productive of the incoming rookies, with his 1,134 yards on the ground trailing only two previous passers: Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton. I then looked at the first two seasons for each of those quarterbacks, to see which was the most productive. (The final four columns show those best NFL numbers.)
Of the previous 13 (setting aside Anthony Richardson, who's only played one year), 10 turned in their best numbers in their second seasons rather than their first. Some combination of needing time to get comfortable or their teams bringing them along slowly. The only guys who delivered their best numbers right off the bat were Robert Griffin III, Vince Young and Trey Lance (who barely counts; those were his only numbers).
If Daniels runs as much in the NFL as he did in college, he'll have some fantasy appeal right away, but it seems like it will be his second season before he really knocks it out of the park.
| RUNNING COLLEGE QBS, 2000-PRESENT (NFL BREAKOUTS) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | NFL | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 3660 | 27 | 1601 | 18 | 2nd | 3127 | 36 | 1206 | 7 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 2854 | 30 | 1473 | 20 | 2nd | 3869 | 19 | 741 | 8 |
| 2024 | Jayden Daniels, ?? | 3812 | 40 | 1134 | 10 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 2786 | 28 | 1100 | 14 | 1st | 603 | 5 | 168 | 1 |
| 2006 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 3036 | 26 | 1050 | 12 | 1st | 2199 | 12 | 552 | 7 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 4361 | 42 | 1001 | 12 | 2nd | 3722 | 26 | 819 | 11 |
| 2010 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 2895 | 21 | 910 | 14 | 2nd | 1729 | 12 | 660 | 6 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 4454 | 42 | 770 | 15 | 2nd | 3426 | 26 | 349 | 2 |
| 2014 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 4114 | 37 | 759 | 9 | 2nd | 1500 | 7 | 230 | 0 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 4293 | 37 | 699 | 10 | 1st | 3200 | 20 | 815 | 7 |
| 2023 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 2549 | 17 | 654 | 9 | 1st | 577 | 3 | 136 | 4 |
| 2005 | Alex Smith, S.F. | 2952 | 32 | 631 | 10 | 2nd | 2890 | 16 | 147 | 2 |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 4593 | 41 | 629 | 9 | 2nd | 4165 | 26 | 551 | 5 |
| 2001 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 1234 | 8 | 617 | 8 | 2nd | 2936 | 16 | 777 | 8 |
| 2024 | Drake Maye, ?? | 3608 | 24 | 449 | 9 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 2945 | 20 | 404 | 14 | 2nd | 3451 | 25 | 364 | 0 |
Fantasy-wise, I'm most interested in Daniels -- 2024, and long-term. A Lamar-caliber runner, but more developed as a passer (Daniels completed over 70 percent of his passes at LSU; Jackson was down at 57 percent in college). Maye ran plenty in college but seems less likely to make that a staple of his game in the pros. Daniels should be the better fantasy player.
I think Washington will take Daniels. Just a feeling that they won't be able to pass up the potential of him being the next Jackson or Newton. He'll have a couple of nice wideouts to work with, as he did at LSU. Maye will likely then go to New England, who has more work to do in terms of putting pass catchers around him. If I need to pick one of these guys without knowing for sure where they're going, I'll take Daniels.
--Andy Richardson