The recent trend of wide receivers producing immediately in the NFL has reduced our appetite for patience and second (and third) chances with underperforming players at the position. But wide receivers do still occasionally have the fabled 'breakout year' on the traditional, slower timeline.
Yesterday's stroll down Greg Roman memory lane got me thinking (again) about Rashod Bateman. Bateman was the 27th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, largely on the strength of a 60/1219/11 line as a true sophomore in 2019; not quite as impressive as the 68/1177/17 line Brian Thomas Jr. wrapped up with at LSU, but similar and none too shabby.
Bateman arrived in Baltimore for the tail end of the Greg Roman era, and when he was finally able to get on the field in his rookie year after suffering a groin injury in training camp he quickly got to work as the Ravens new #1 receiver, piling up 6 or more targets in each of his first five games as a pro. We went into 2022 collectively assuming that the Ravens had found their Marquise Brown replacement.
Bateman started 2022 hot, posting 226 yards and 2 TDs through three games on just eight catches, good for a splashy 28.25 yards per catch. The next week Bateman would suffer the dreaded Lisfranc injury, subsequently worsening it in a week 7 comeback attempt before missing the rest of the season. A reaggravation of the injury in training camp last year seemed to be all the motivation the Ravens needed to 'redshirt' him for 2023, as he saw the field almost exclusively in three and four-receiver sets.
But as I touched on in a March YouTube video, the Ravens seem to be back in on Bateman: John Harbaugh has been pretty effusive about him since January, culminating in his recent two-year contract extension (although they really just split up the money from his fifth year option and spread it out across the next two seasons - another instance of Ravens front office savviness). Between that, the departure of Odell Beckham Jr. and my deep skepticism of Zay Flowers I think we may have the ingredients for Bateman to rebound in year 4 - a rarity, but not without some recent precedents.
| RECENT WRs WITH FIRST TOP-18 FINISH YEAR 4 OR LATER | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Team | Experience | Quarterback |
| 2013 | Antonio Brown | Steelers | 3 | Ben Roethlisberger |
| 2017 | Adam Thielen | Vikings | 3 | Case Keenum |
| 2018 | Stefon Diggs | Vikings | 3 | Kirk Cousins |
| 2018 | Robert Woods | Rams | 5 | Jared Goff |
| 2018 | Tyler Lockett | Seahawks | 3 | Russell Wilson |
| 2021 | Mike Williams | Chargers | 4 | Justin Herbert |
| 2022 | Christian Kirk | Jaguars | 4 | Trevor Lawrence |
| 2022 | Terry McLaurin | Commanders | 3 | Heinicke/Wentz |
Obviously some of these examples aren't super relevant; I'm gonna go out on a limb right now and say Rashod Bateman is no Antonio Brown. But Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett and even Mike Williams strike me as decent precedents for Bateman to finally break through here. And obviously having a star quarterback helps - Bateman's got that in hand as well.
I'm not exactly breaking the bank to get him, but I've taken a couple stabs on him at clearance pricing in dynasty leagues in the last few months and would love to nab him as maybe a fifth receiver in a couple redraft leagues in August.
—Luke Wilson