Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Drake Maye

Rookie tosses 5 TDs in his first two starts

That’s a nice start for Drake Maye. Just two starts, but he’s starting to look like he might be a thing.

He passed for 243 yards and 3 TDs in his first start (against Houston), and he followed it up with 276 yards and 2 TDs in London against the Jaguars.

Admittedly, that’s a pretty awful Jacksonville defense, but Maye looks pretty good, completing 66 percent of his passes in those starts, and without much around him. He’s driving the ball downfield, and he’s picking up first downs with his legs.

In the last 10 years, 58 quarterbacks have started at least two games as rookie. Only one put up more passing production in his first two starts. (Using 4 points for TD passes and 1 for every 20 passing yards.)

I’m not doing anything with mobility in the chart below, but Maye can also run. He’s scrambled for 38 and 18 yards in those games.

If we take those stats and then merge them with some career numbers, the results look pretty good. That is, when a player throws for a bunch of yards and touchdowns in his first two games, those guys tend to have good careers.

Of the top dozen listed below, two thirds at some point in their career ranked in the top 11 in per-game production (using standard fantasy scoring, which does include rushing production). The four exceptions of those 12 are Drew Lock and Will Levis (who haven’t had a good season year), and Marcus Mariota and Sam Darnold. In Mariota’s best stat season, he ranked 14th among quarterbacks in per-game production. Darnold seems to be working on his first viable season right now.

I was leery of Maye when the Patriots picked him, but I’m feeling better about him. He might even merit a Superflex start in Week 8, given the way the Jets have declined defensively the last two weeks.

In the chart, the final column shows the player's rank in per-game production next to other quarterbacks who started at least half of that season. (For players with no number, they haven't yet started at least half of a season.)

BEST ROOKIE STARTS (last 10 years)
YearPlayerComAttYdsTDIntPts/GBest
2015Marcus Mariota, Ten.34524666023.714
2024Drake Maye, N.E.46705195223.0--
2018Baker Mayfield, Cle.46846373321.911
2019Drew Lock, Den.40554435221.126
2020Jalen Hurts, Phil.41745054020.62
2023Will Levis, Ten.41685004120.525
2019Kyler Murray, Ari.54946572120.43
2020Justin Herbert, LAC57826412220.02
2019Daniel Jones, NYG46675613220.08
2023C.J. Stroud, Hou.58916262019.77
2018Sam Darnold, NYJ41625323319.318
2021Trevor Lawrence, Jac.42844504519.311
2020Joe Burrow, Cin.60975093118.74
2022Bailey Zappe, N.E.41554973118.4--
2023Tommy DeVito, NYG32533325118.3--
2019David Blough, Det.46784853318.1--
2022Brock Purdy, S.F.33474024018.16
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.43714683017.72
2019Gardner Minshew, Jac.43634173016.412
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.30544173216.42
2020Jake Luton, Jac.44734732215.8--
2021Zach Wilson, NYJ39704682515.726
2018Josh Allen, Buff.33554412215.01
2021Trey Lance, S.F.31524412215.0--
2016Jared Goff, LAR37633483114.78
2017Deshaun Watson, Hou.37574262214.75
2020Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.32503413014.58
2016Cody Kessler, Cle.49734671113.731
2021Mac Jones, N.E.51694671013.726
2016Dak Prescott, Dall.47755190013.04
2019Dwayne Haskins, Was.34573582113.0--
2018Josh Rosen, Ari.25523502012.832
2019Devlin Hodges, Pitt.29413442212.6--
2024Spencer Rattler, N.O.47754151212.4--
2017DeShone Kizer, Cle.35614041412.121
2017C.J. Beathard, S.F.39744021212.1--
2023Tyson Bagent, Chi.46663941211.9--
2022Kenny Pickett, Pitt.45703941111.929
2023Bryce Young, Car.42712992211.528
2023Aidan O'Connell, L.V.40644470111.224
2024Jayden Daniels, Was.40534100010.3--
2018Lamar Jackson, Balt.27443281310.21
2016Paxton Lynch, Den.35593271110.2--
2017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.20412412110.010
2024Bo Nix, Den.4677384049.6--
2019Ryan Finley, Cin.2961282129.1--
2023Anthony Richardson, Ind.3047279119.0--
2021Davis Mills, Hou.3049255148.425
2022Desmond Ridder, Atl.3559315007.922
2016Jacoby Brissett, N.E.2846308007.717
2023Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cle.4379286047.2--
2021Justin Fields, Chi.1737277016.96
2024Caleb Williams, Chi.3766267026.7--
2022Skylar Thompson, Mia.2744241006.0--
2019Will Grier, Car.2852228045.7--
2017Nathan Peterman, Buff.1124123155.1--
2023Jaren Hall, Min.1016145013.6--
2022Malik Willis, Ten.1126135013.4--

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index