I like to start fast. I don’t like falling in a hole early, creating extra pressure to win. I’d much rather have a buffer to work with. And with that in mind, it makes some sense to look at early-season schedules.
If we operate under the assumption that teams will be somewhat similar to last year, the Giants, Lions and Ravens look like teams that will be outperforming expectations early. Their first five games are against opponents that lost almost twice as many games as they won last year.
The teams with the four hardest schedules early, on the other hand, all have notable offenses – Bills, Broncos, Rams, Patriots.
With a new coaching staff and a new offense, the Giants are a question mark. They’ve got Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo coming back from injuries, but I can’t promise they’ll be above-average offensively. But I like that two of their first five are against teams that went 3-14 last year (Arizona, Tennessee). Another two are against teams that really struggled defensively in 2025 (Dallas, Washington).
With a new defensive coordinator and a bunch of new players, I’m not positive that the Cowboys will again have a bottom-10 defense, but I think it can be labeled a favorable matchup for now.
With the Lions, they open at home against the Saints, which can be inked in as a win. Their next game will be the first at Buffalo’s new dome, which is less than ideal, but then they’ve got the Jets, Panthers and Cardinals. That makes for a combined win-loss record of 32-53 through Week 5.
The Ravens are also set up for a fast start. They’ll start with the Colts and Saints before playing in Brazil against the Cowboys. Then they’ve got Tennessee and Atlanta. We’ll see where the Cowboys are at, but Baltimore should be a strong favorite in those other four games. It’s a schedule giving guys like Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry a good chance of starting the year strong.
The Bills, on the other hand, have a nasty opening run. They’ll open at Houston (where they sputtered last year), then play the Lions, Chargers, Patriots and Rams. All five of those teams made the playoffs last year, with a combined record of 58-27.
The Broncos open against six straight playoff teams: Kansas City, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, Seahawks. So if we’re looking not at the first five weeks but the first six, they move past Buffalo in difficulty.
The Patriots get a home game against the Raiders in Week 5, which is about as good as it gets, but its first four are about as tough as they come – Seahawks, Steelers, Jaguars, Bills.
The totals for all 32 teams …
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (first 5 G) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| NY Giants | 30 | 54 | 1 | .359 |
| Detroit | 32 | 53 | 0 | .376 |
| Baltimore | 32 | 52 | 1 | .382 |
| Miami | 36 | 49 | 0 | .424 |
| Houston | 36 | 48 | 1 | .429 |
| Tampa Bay | 36 | 47 | 2 | .435 |
| Dallas | 37 | 48 | 0 | .435 |
| New Orleans | 37 | 48 | 0 | .435 |
| NY Jets | 37 | 47 | 1 | .441 |
| Tennessee | 38 | 47 | 0 | .447 |
| Green Bay | 39 | 46 | 0 | .459 |
| Chicago | 40 | 44 | 1 | .476 |
| Pittsburgh | 41 | 44 | 0 | .482 |
| Indianapolis | 41 | 44 | 0 | .482 |
| Minnesota | 41 | 43 | 1 | .488 |
| Atlanta | 41 | 43 | 1 | .488 |
| Cleveland | 42 | 43 | 0 | .494 |
| Kansas City | 43 | 42 | 0 | .506 |
| Philadelphia | 44 | 41 | 0 | .518 |
| Carolina | 44 | 41 | 0 | .518 |
| Las Vegas | 44 | 41 | 0 | .518 |
| Washington | 44 | 40 | 1 | .524 |
| Seattle | 45 | 40 | 0 | .529 |
| LA Chargers | 46 | 39 | 0 | .541 |
| San Francisco | 50 | 35 | 0 | .588 |
| Arizona | 50 | 35 | 0 | .588 |
| Cincinnati | 50 | 35 | 0 | .588 |
| Jacksonville | 50 | 35 | 0 | .588 |
| New England | 52 | 33 | 0 | .612 |
| LA Rams | 53 | 32 | 0 | .624 |
| Denver | 54 | 31 | 0 | .635 |
| Buffalo | 58 | 27 | 0 | .682 |
If we use not wins and losses but points allowed by defenses, the Giants and Ravens still have top-3 schedules, joined by the Texans (who were 5th-easiest using wins).
The key teams at the bottom are the same as what’s shown using wins and losses, with the Bills, Broncos, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Bengals all in the bottom quarter.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (first 5 G) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Avg |
| NY Giants | 26.8 |
| Houston | 26.6 |
| Baltimore | 25.7 |
| Detroit | 24.9 |
| Tampa Bay | 24.4 |
| Green Bay | 24.3 |
| NY Jets | 24.1 |
| Philadelphia | 23.8 |
| Cleveland | 23.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 23.6 |
| Dallas | 23.5 |
| Minnesota | 23.4 |
| Washington | 23.3 |
| New Orleans | 23.3 |
| Seattle | 23.2 |
| Tennessee | 23.1 |
| Miami | 23.0 |
| Carolina | 22.7 |
| Kansas City | 22.6 |
| Atlanta | 22.4 |
| Chicago | 22.4 |
| LA Chargers | 22.2 |
| San Francisco | 21.9 |
| Indianapolis | 21.9 |
| Arizona | 21.8 |
| Cincinnati | 21.8 |
| Jacksonville | 21.5 |
| New England | 21.3 |
| LA Rams | 21.3 |
| Las Vegas | 21.1 |
| Denver | 20.2 |
| Buffalo | 20.2 |
—Ian Allan
