A reader a few weeks back asked for Strength of Schedule information for defenses. That is, which teams might benefit from playing against offenses that tend to cough up the most sacks and turnovers?
I put a sticky on my computer screen, and I’m getting around to it now. As is usually the case, there are some interesting takeaways.
The Steelers, if my estimations are accurate, should benefit from playing a favorable schedule. That’s notable, with them having a defense that probably would be good anyway – they tend to spend more on that side of the ball.
Pittsburgh will be helped along, apparently, by playing in a defense-friendly division, lowlighted by the Browns, but with Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson also involved in more sacks and turnovers than you would expect from a pair of elite quarterbacks.
All the teams in the AFC North have schedules that projected to be among the five easiest in the league (joined by the Lions).
The two hardest schedules, on the other hand, belong to a pair of NFC West teams that many will be expecting to do big things – Seahawks and Rams.
My takeaway, therefore, is that if you see the Steelers and Seahawks as having comparable defenses, you should be selecting Pittsburgh in your fantasy league.
My conclusions appear below. I’m assuming the scoring system of 2 points for takeaways and 1 for sacks. I tossed out Week 18 games, with more fantasy leagues being done at that point. The number below show the expected average season-long totals for each team’s opponents.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, DEFENSES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Sack | Int | Fum | F Pts |
| Pittsburgh | 40.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 81.7 |
| Cleveland | 40.0 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 81.1 |
| Baltimore | 40.3 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 81.0 |
| Detroit | 40.7 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 80.7 |
| Cincinnati | 39.8 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 80.6 |
| Indianapolis | 41.3 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 80.6 |
| Tennessee | 39.6 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 80.1 |
| Las Vegas | 39.1 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 79.7 |
| NY Jets | 40.4 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 79.6 |
| New Orleans | 38.8 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 79.6 |
| NY Giants | 38.4 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 79.3 |
| Denver | 38.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 79.1 |
| LA Chargers | 37.6 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 78.3 |
| Jacksonville | 39.4 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 77.9 |
| Atlanta | 38.6 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 77.9 |
| Washington | 38.4 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 77.9 |
| Chicago | 38.7 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 77.7 |
| Carolina | 38.3 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 77.7 |
| Kansas City | 37.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 77.6 |
| Houston | 39.1 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 77.3 |
| San Francisco | 37.3 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 77.3 |
| Dallas | 38.2 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 76.8 |
| Green Bay | 38.3 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 76.6 |
| New England | 38.1 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 76.6 |
| Arizona | 36.7 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 76.3 |
| Buffalo | 38.3 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 76.2 |
| Philadelphia | 36.8 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 76.2 |
| Minnesota | 37.1 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 76.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 37.0 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 76.0 |
| Miami | 37.4 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 75.8 |
| LA Rams | 36.5 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 75.8 |
| Seattle | 36.3 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 75.1 |
For the chart above, it’s based not on what offenses did last year, but instead on my estimation of what they would do in the upcoming season against typical opponents. Teams change, after all, with new coaches, schemes and players. Fernando Mendoza hasn’t even played yet at the NFL level.
So I took a stab at expected season totals for each offense. There’s plenty of chance with fumbles, so I kept all teams between 6 and 10 in that category. (Even more chance involved with touchdowns, so I left those out entirely.)
| FEEDER NUMBERS FOR OFFENSES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Quarterback | Sack | Int | Fum |
| Arizona | Mostly Brissett | 43 | 15 | 10 |
| Atlanta | Tagovailoa / Penix | 35 | 13 | 10 |
| Baltimore | Lamar Jackson | 39 | 10 | 9 |
| Buffalo | Josh Allen | 35 | 8 | 7 |
| Carolina | Bryce Young | 35 | 12 | 9 |
| Chicago | Caleb Williams | 31 | 7 | 7 |
| Cincinnati | Joe Burrow | 40 | 10 | 9 |
| Cleveland | Shedeur / Watson | 54 | 18 | 10 |
| Dallas | Dak Prescott | 32 | 10 | 8 |
| Denver | Bo Nix | 24 | 11 | 6 |
| Detroit | Jared Goff | 36 | 10 | 7 |
| Green Bay | Jordan Love | 28 | 8 | 7 |
| Houston | C.J. Stroud | 35 | 11 | 6 |
| Indianapolis | Mostly D.Jones | 33 | 13 | 9 |
| Jacksonville | Trevor Lawrence | 39 | 11 | 7 |
| Kansas City | Mostly Mahomes | 33 | 11 | 6 |
| LA Chargers | Justin Herbert | 41 | 10 | 6 |
| LA Rams | Matthew Stafford | 26 | 9 | 7 |
| Las Vegas | Mostly Mendoza | 43 | 15 | 10 |
| Miami | Malik Willis | 46 | 13 | 9 |
| Minnesota | Kyler Murray | 45 | 12 | 9 |
| New England | Drake Maye | 45 | 11 | 8 |
| New Orleans | Tyler Shough | 45 | 13 | 10 |
| NY Giants | Jaxson Dart | 46 | 11 | 8 |
| NY Jets | Geno Smith | 50 | 17 | 10 |
| Philadelphia | Jalen Hurts | 38 | 7 | 9 |
| Pittsburgh | Aaron Rodgers | 35 | 11 | 7 |
| San Francisco | Brock Purdy | 29 | 14 | 7 |
| Seattle | Sam Darnold | 38 | 14 | 10 |
| Tampa Bay | Baker Mayfield | 40 | 12 | 7 |
| Tennessee | Cam Ward | 51 | 12 | 10 |
| Washington | Jayden Daniels | 42 | 12 | 9 |
—Ian Allan
