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Strength of schedule trends

Looking at run- and pass-special scheduling numbers

I’m not a big fan of strength of schedule. Teams change so much from year to year, that I don’t have confidence it means all that much. But guys do ask about it, so makes sense to unpack some of the numbers.

Some of the more common numbers have already been provided in this place – strength of schedule via wins and losses, and also by points allowed. Those provide a general sense of which teams might benefit from playing against lesser opposition.

But some like to also look at numbers specific to rushing and passing, figuring some teams will play schedules that are set up for certain kinds of players. So let’s address those here.

For rushing, the 2025 numbers suggest the Lions, Saints and Texans will be playing the easiet schedules. Good news for the former tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Many are mulling whether Gibbs or Bijan Robinson should be picked No. 1 overall; Gibbs faces the easiest schedule.

With Montgomery, the Texans picked him up, figuring he’ll be their starter.

If defenses play like they did last year, then the two hardest rushing schedules will belong to the two running backs selected earliest in last year’s draft, Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton.

The Saints project to have the 2nd-easiest run schedule, but they didn’t have much interest in running the ball last year.

The charts below based on 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Rushing)
TeamYardsTDRFan Pts
Detroit125.9718.3
New Orleans121.9617.9
Houston1171.0317.9
Philadelphia119.9817.8
Washington119.9917.8
Minnesota121.9417.8
Miami119.9717.7
NY Jets118.9817.7
Green Bay121.9217.6
New England119.9617.6
Cleveland118.9617.5
Seattle118.9417.5
Indianapolis116.9817.4
Dallas116.9717.4
LA Rams115.9817.4
Tennessee115.9917.4
Jacksonville116.9717.4
Tampa Bay121.8817.4
NY Giants116.9617.3
Baltimore117.9417.3
Atlanta119.9017.3
Chicago117.9117.2
San Francisco118.9017.2
Kansas City115.9217.0
Buffalo116.9017.0
Denver113.9316.9
Pittsburgh113.9216.8
Arizona115.8816.8
Cincinnati113.8916.6
Carolina116.8316.6
LA Chargers110.9116.5
Las Vegas112.8716.4

Using the same approach with passing, the three easiest schedules project to belong to three teams that all finished in the bottom 10 in passing last year – Eagles, Browns, Titans. That’s not exciting.

But there are some more capable passing offenses that also seem to have friendly schedules, including the Jaguars, Bengals and Cowboys.

The Jets, on the other hand, simply look snakebit – they were last in passing last year, and they’ve got the hardest schedule.

The numbers below reflect the collective average per-game numbers by opponents in their games played last year. The final column assumes 6 points for each touchdown passes and 1 point for every 10 passing yards.

Fernando Mendoza (if defenses play just like they did last year) will face the 2nd-hardest schedule for passing.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Passing)
TeamYardsTDPFan Pts
Philadelphia2411.6433.9
Cleveland2371.5833.2
Tennessee2351.5432.7
Jacksonville2351.5332.7
NY Giants2331.5632.6
Minnesota2261.6332.4
Houston2331.5132.4
Cincinnati2321.5132.3
Dallas2341.4732.3
New Orleans2291.5432.1
Baltimore2271.5532.0
Washington2311.4832.0
Atlanta2271.5331.9
Indianapolis2291.4931.8
Seattle2281.4931.8
Pittsburgh2261.4531.3
Arizona2251.4731.3
Green Bay2201.5531.3
Tampa Bay2221.5031.2
Carolina2231.4831.2
LA Rams2241.4431.0
Detroit2171.5230.8
San Francisco2231.4130.8
Buffalo2181.4730.7
Kansas City2201.4330.6
LA Chargers2201.4030.5
New England2151.4630.3
Miami2141.4630.2
Denver2181.4030.2
Chicago2131.4229.8
Las Vegas2131.3829.6
NY Jets2111.4229.6

—Ian Allan

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