I didn’t submit a waiver claim on Caleb Douglas, but I’m wishing that I had. He plays on a lesser team, but that was a solid debut he put together.
Douglas, as a refresher, caught 5 passes for 94 yards in Miami’s opener. He also had a really nifty one-handed catch in a preseason game against Washington. (Douglas got downfield for another big catch in that Commanders game but came down with a toenail out of bounds.) This is unexpectedly nice production for a third-round pick.
And while we’re dipping into this topic, let’s bring out Exhibit B. Antonio Williams was also a third-round pick, and he had a similar debut for Washington – 4 catches for 64 yards and a touchdown at Philadelphia.
Had these kind of stats been put up by one of the receivers selected with top-10 picks (Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson) they would be generating more anticipation. But these guys lasted until the 71st and 75th picks, so there’s more of a tendency to worry that they’ll quietly fizzle away.
With Douglas, there’s the legit concern that Miami is simply terrible. After a decisive loss against a lesser opponent (Raiders), the Dolphins are looking pretty certain to be a bottom-5 team. But Douglas, at least, is looking very likely to be the No. 1 option on his own team.
With Williams, he also appears to be on a lesser squad, but the Commanders have a little more offensive pop. They also, however, have a pair of veteran wide receivers who’ve been productive – Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs.
In my own personal league, I didn’t submit a claim for either of these rookies. Doing so would involve releasing tight end Harold Fannin, running back MarShawn Lloyd or kicker Trey Smack, and I’m not ready to do that. I’m currently carrying four veteran receivers, with three starting each week – Olave, Jameson, Metcalf, McLaurin.
But I will concede there’s a chance I’m regret not moving on one of these guys.
Consider the following chart. It shows the 18 other lightly regarded rookie receivers in the 32-team era who’ve caught at least 4 passes in Week 1. Now, “lightly regarded” is a term that can be debated. In this case, I removed all of the receivers selected in the first two rounds of the draft, then examined those who were left over.
For the 18 receivers who caught at least 4 passes in their first game, I see five who went on to put together fantasy relevant seasons. Marques Colston, Cooper Kupp, Terry McLaurin and Puka Nacua all finished with top-30 numbers (using PPR scoring), while Tyler Lockett came in at No. 41.
All of the other 13 receivers finished 54th or lower, and I think we can live without any of those guys. (Hence my decision to want to hang onto those other prospects for another week.) But some chance I just sat on my hands while a top-40 receiver drifted by.
| LIGHTLY REGARDED RECEIVERS WITH GOOD STARTS | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rd | 1st G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2003 | Shaun McDonald, St.L. | 4 | 6-46-0 | 21 | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 | 16.9 | 129 |
| 2006 | • Marques Colston, N.O. | 7 | 4-49-1 | 115 | 70 | 1038 | 14.8 | 8 | 221.8 | 16 |
| 2007 | James Jones, G.B. | 3 | 4-29-0 | 80 | 47 | 676 | 14.4 | 2 | 126.6 | 59 |
| 2009 | Louis Murphy, Oak. | 4 | 4-87-1 | 96 | 34 | 521 | 15.3 | 4 | 113.2 | 67 |
| 2009 | Mike Thomas, Jac. | 4 | 5-30-1 | 62 | 48 | 453 | 9.4 | 1 | 107.9 | 70 |
| 2010 | Jordan Shipley, Cin. | 3 | 5-82-0 | 74 | 52 | 600 | 11.5 | 3 | 130.0 | 54 |
| 2015 | • Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 3 | 4-34-0 | 69 | 51 | 664 | 13.0 | 6 | 167.4 | 41 |
| 2015 | Rashad Greene, Jac. | 5 | 7-28-1 | 35 | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 2 | 46.3 | 113 |
| 2016 | Tajae Sharpe, Ten. | 5 | 7-76-0 | 83 | 41 | 522 | 12.7 | 2 | 105.3 | 73 |
| 2017 | • Cooper Kupp, LAR | 3 | 4-76-1 | 94 | 62 | 869 | 14.0 | 5 | 178.9 | 25 |
| 2017 | Kenny Golladay, Det. | 3 | 4-69-2 | 48 | 28 | 477 | 17.0 | 3 | 94.6 | 70 |
| 2019 | • Terry McLaurin, Was. | 3 | 5-125-1 | 93 | 58 | 919 | 15.8 | 7 | 191.9 | 30 |
| 2019 | KeeSean Johnson, Ari. | 6 | 5-46-0 | 42 | 21 | 187 | 8.9 | 1 | 48.0 | 112 |
| 2022 | Romeo Doubs, G.B. | 4 | 4-37-0 | 67 | 42 | 425 | 10.1 | 3 | 103.6 | 70 |
| 2022 | Kyle Philips, Ten. | 5 | 6-66-0 | 13 | 8 | 78 | 9.8 | 0 | 15.8 | 155 |
| 2023 | • Puka Nacua, LAR | 5 | 10-119-0 | 160 | 105 | 1486 | 14.2 | 6 | 298.5 | 4 |
| 2023 | DeMario Douglas, N.E. | 6 | 4-40-0 | 78 | 49 | 561 | 11.5 | 0 | 109.2 | 64 |
| 2024 | Devaughn Vele, Den. | 7 | 8-39-0 | 55 | 41 | 475 | 11.6 | 3 | 106.5 | 76 |
| 2026 | Antonio Williams, Was. | 3 | 4-64-1 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2026 | Caleb Douglas, Mia. | 3 | 5-94-0 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan
