We’re closing in on the end of the fifth round in the Fanex Analysis Draft, and two trends have emerged. Number 1: wide receivers have been flying off the board. And number 2: Where are the quarterbacks?
Of the 61 players selected, 33 have been wide receivers. That’s partially dictated by the PPR scoring, which juices up that position. And in this league, there’s also a flex slot and three starting wide receivers – that is, you can use four in any given week. So people have racing to pack as many good wide receivers onto their rosters as possible.
The idea of selecting wide receivers isn’t new to me. I’ve been a wide receiver proponent for years, trying to build a corps of 80-catch guys. That’s generally how I’ve won this league in four of the last nine years.
This year I’ve taken a different tack. With pick 1.07, I didn’t like the receiver values in the first two rounds, so I went with two of my top 4 running backs instead: The Girly Man and Mark Ingram. If my scouting is right, that should be the best one-two punch of running backs in the league.
But by expending resources at running back, I have been fighting an uphill battle at wide receiver. Third round went great: got Brandin Cooks there (who should have been more of a mid-second-round guy, I thought.
In the fourth round, I was faced with choosing between Donte Moncrief and Sammy Watkins. I went with Moncrief. He’s about as good as Watkins, I think, and in this format, there’s a huge premium on selecting 16-game players – there are no roster moves allowed. But in hindsight, I wish I had gone with Watkins. I made my pick a half a day before Watkins posted the video of himself running, so he looks healthy for now. And just maybe Moncrief would have made it to the fifth round – unlikely but possible.
Fifth round I took a stab in the dark on Kevin White. Insane physical measurables – a 215-pounder who ran a 4.35 at the combine – but he hasn’t actually even played in a preseason game yet (missed all of his rookie year). Heading into this draft, I figured White would be probably my 5th wide receiver, but with other franchises going hard after the position, he’s my No. 3. If he doesn’t catch 70-plus balls, my team could be in trouble.
Even after taking wide receivers in three straight rounds, I still need to address that position. You need guys who will catch the ball in this format.
The other big story in this draft are the quarterbacks – or lack of them. Only one was drafted in the first 59 picks – Cam Newton with the 2nd pick of the third round. Aaron Rodgers just went with the final choice of the fifth round (No. 60 overall).
And that’s it.
What we have going here, I think, is a format that’s slanted in favor of wide receivers. It’s PPR scoring, and every team could really use four good ones. So you’ve got 12 teams fighting for those 30-40 good receivers (wherever you draw the quality line).
With quarterbacks, on the other hand, there’s unusual depth and quality this year. There are some good ones, but how much better are they than all the other guys like Derek Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, etc? There’s something like 20-22 pretty viable quarterbacks, depending on where you want to set the bar. It’s a viable strategy to let others fight for those first half-dozen “quality” guys, then pick up two of the next dozen or so, and your team should be fine. I think that’s what many teams are doing.
I’ve fallen into that trap myself. In the fifth round I selected a wide receiver who’s never even played in a game rather than Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck or any other quarterback. And while I’m thinking about quarterbacks, I’m not even sure I would take one of those guys in the sixth round. The talent at the other positions is running out quicker.
As a reminder, this is a 12-team league, with each franchise selecting 20 players. No starting lineups each week (you just get your best-ball lineup). No head-to-head games (the team with the most points after 17 weeks wins).
The draft is being held at MyFantasyLeague.com. Owners are submitting one-paragraph scouting capsules after each pick, and those can be seen by clicking on the link.
Worst picks (I thought) in Round 2 were Jordy Nelson, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte. Nelson and Charles have been great players in the past, but they’re older guys trying to come off ACL injuries. With Forte, he’s a 30-year-old running back, and I don’t think he’ll be used nearly as extensively with the Jets, particularly as a pass catcher. In the offseason, they signed Bilal Powell to a three-year contract worth almost as much as Forte. Powell was very effective as a pass catcher late last year, and I think he’ll get a good chunk of those plays.
| 2016 FANEX ANALYSIS DRAFT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Pick | Pos | Player | Owner |
| 1.01 | WR | Antonio Brown | Panizo |
| 1.02 | WR | Odell Beckham Jr. | Rito/Nazarek |
| 1.03 | RB | LeVeon Bell | Adams |
| 1.04 | WR | Julio Jones | Satterlee |
| 1.05 | WR | A.J. Green | Pianowski |
| 1.06 | RB | Ezekiel Elliott | Nease |
| 1.07 | RB | Todd Gurley | Allan |
| 1.08 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins | Serritella |
| 1.09 | RB | David Johnson | Cahill |
| 1.10 | RB | Adrian Peterson | Schauf |
| 1.11 | WR | Dez Bryant | Holm |
| 1.12 | TE | Rob Gronkowski | Dolfi/Walls |
| 2.01 | RB | Lamar Miller | Dolfi/Walls |
| 2.02 | WR | Jordy Nelson | Holm |
| 2.03 | WR | Keenan Allen | Schauf |
| 2.04 | RB | Jamaal Charles | Cahill |
| 2.05 | WR | Brandon Marshall | Serritella |
| 2.06 | RB | Mark Ingram | Allan |
| 2.07 | RB | Devonta Freeman | Nease |
| 2.08 | WR | Allen Robinson | Pianowski |
| 2.09 | WR | Mike Evans | Satterlee |
| 2.10 | RB | Matt Forte | Adams |
| 2.11 | RB | Doug Martin | Rito/Nazarek |
| 2.12 | WR | Jarvis Landry | Panizo |
| 3.01 | RB | LeSean McCoy | Panizo |
| 3.02 | QB | Cam Newton | Rito/Nazarek |
| 3.03 | TE | Jordan Reed | Adams |
| 3.04 | RB | Eddie Lacy | Satterlee |
| 3.05 | WR | Alshon Jeffery | Pianowski |
| 3.06 | WR | Amari Cooper | Nease |
| 3.07 | WR | Brandin Cooks | Allan |
| 3.08 | RB | Latavius Murray | Serritella |
| 3.09 | WR | T.Y. Hilton | Cahill |
| 3.10 | WR | Demaryius Thomas | Schauf |
| 3.11 | WR | Golden Tate | Holm |
| 3.12 | WR | Jeremy Maclin | Dolfi/Walls |
| 4.01 | WR | Randall Cobb | Dolfi/Walls |
| 4.02 | WR | Kelvin Benjamin | Holm |
| 4.03 | RB | C.J. Anderson | Schauf |
| 4.04 | WR | Julian Edelman | Cahill |
| 4.05 | RB | Matt Jones | Serritella |
| 4.06 | WR | Donte Moncrief | Allan |
| 4.07 | WR | Doug Baldwin | Nease |
| 4.08 | WR | Jordan Matthews | Pianowski |
| 4.09 | RB | Carlos Hyde | Satterlee |
| 4.10 | WR | Eric Decker | Adams |
| 4.11 | WR | Sammy Watkins | Rito/Nazarek |
| 4.12 | RB | Danny Woodhead | Panizo |
| 5.01 | WR | Larry Fitzgerald | Panizo |
| 5.02 | RB | Dion Lewis | Rito/Nazarek |
| 5.03 | WR | Emmanuel Sanders | Adams |
| 5.04 | RB | Duke Johnson Jr. | Satterlee |
| 5.05 | RB | Giovani Bernard | Pianowski |
| 5.06 | RB | Thomas Rawls | Nease |
| 5.07 | WR | Kevin White | Allan |
| 5.08 | TE | Greg Olsen | Serritella |
| 5.09 | WR | Tyler Lockett | Cahill |
| 5.10 | RB | DeMarco Murray | Holm |
| 5.11 | WR | Michael Floyd | Schauf |
| 5.12 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | Dolfi/Walls |
| 6.01 | WR | Allen Hurns | Dolfi/Walls |
—Ian Allan
