KANSAS CITY (vs. Tennessee)
Kansas City is 10-3, and they've been doing it with smoke and mirrors. And turnovers. They've got a league-high 25 takeaways, with 7 TDs scored on defense and special teams. Offensively and defensively, they're in the bottom 10 (for yards). The offense is averaging only 2 TDs per game. We'll project them a little higher than that this week. The game's in Kansas City, and Tennessee's defense has been suspect recently. It allowed only 10 points on Sunday, ...
This report is taken from today's Week 15 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 21 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... but that game was at home, and the Broncos were consistently marching the ball in the second half. Tennessee's defense allowed 3 TDs in each of its previous seven games. So we're looking for 2-3 TDs from Kansas City's offense. ... Alex Smith has long been a pretty terrible fantasy quarterback. He's averaged 218 passing yards the last two years, with 18 and 20 touchdowns. He'll finish short of 20 TDs this year. But he oddly looks like a possible above-average passer this week. Smith has been trending upwards recently. He's finished under 260 passing yards in only one of his last four games, and that was against the Broncos. Just one touchdown pass in each of those games, but look who's coming to town. Tennessee is allowing a league-high 292 passing yards per game, and it had allowed multiple touchdown passes in seven straight games prior to holding Trevor Siemian to just one. The Titans have allowed over 315 passing yards in six of their last eight games. So this very much looks like a game where Smith should throw for 270-plus and probably a couple of touchdowns. Note that while Smith is famously a dink-and-dunker whose main goal seems to be to avoid interceptions, he's been taking more deep shots recently. He's been connecting on some deep balls. We're putting him way higher than usual on our board. ... We don't have much interest in Spencer Ware. He's not putting up the numbers he did early in the season. Kansas City has a lesser offensive line, and he's a pretty ordinary back. He's run for under 70 yards in six straight games, and he's been under 3 yards per attempt in half of those games. At the start of the year, recall, Ware averaged over 5.5 yards per attempt in four of his first five. It's just not happening anymore, and this week he's facing a defense ranked 3rd in run defense. The Titans are one of those teams that prides itself on taking away the run and forcing opponents to pass. Touchdowns don't look likely either. Ware has scored in only one of his last six games. Tennessee has allowed 22 touchdowns passing but only 6 rushing. Ware was catching a ton of passes early in the season, but he's also declined in that regard; he's averaged 18 receiving yards in his last five games. ... The matchup is ideal for the passing game, so we're going higher than usual on the receivers. Travis Kelce has gone over 100 yards four games in a row. Just 3 TDs, but he's a guy who'll get some red-zone looks. If Kansas City throws 2 TDs in this game, probably about a 50 percent chance he scores. Tyreek Hill is hot right now -- probably the fastest player in the league and a Percy Harvin type threat. He's gone over 50 receiving yards five weeks in a row, and he'll handle it on kick returns and end-arounds. He's scored 5 TDs in his last five games. With him having scored 2 TDs recently on kick returns, more teams will probably choose not to kick to him. Jeremy Maclin is fully recovered from his groin injury, but he looks like just another guy in this offense right now; he's averaged 44 yards, with 2 TDs in nine games. Chris Conley hasn't been much of a factor, averaging 35 yards (with no touchdowns) but oddly caught two passes over 30 yards last week -- running the type of vertical routes that Alex Smith historically has never thrown. Albert Wilson and DeAnthony Thomas should see only spot duty. ... The Kansas City Defense is hot right now. The pass rush has picked up, and they've scored touchdowns on returns in four of their last five games. Kansas City is tied for first with 25 takeaways. But we're ranking them short of the elite defenses this week. Tennessee's offense is built around taking care of the ball; it's turned the ball over only 13 times in 13 games, and only four teams have allowed fewer sacks. No doubt they'll try to come in and run the ball (they were comfortable having Marcus Mariota throw for only 88 yards last week against Denver). Also, with Tyreek Hill having scored on kick returns in two of their last three games, you've got to figure they'll be smart enough not to kick to him. But straight off the numbers, Kansas City must be considered as likely as anyone to score a defensive touchdown. Kansas City has scored a league-high 7 TDs on returns, while the Titans have allowed a league-high 7 of those touchdowns. ... Cairo Santos hasn't been much of a factor recently, with 3 points in back-to-back games. The Titans, on the other hand, have played well against four straight kickers, allowing, 5, 6, 3 and 4 points. But this is a fickle position. Had you looked into this matchup a month ago, the offense-defense would have spit out 8.8 points for Santos, which is more of a top-3 number. He's scored 12-13 points against each of his other three games against teams from the AFC South. Weather will need to be looked into.