Earlier this week Ian posted an article about Bijan Robinson, examining the odds of him being the best running back in the 2023 NFL Draft (he'll almost certainly be the first one selected, and possibly the only first-round pick). In the comments, a reader asked what percentage of recent first-round running backs have busted. So I took a look.
He asked about first-round running backs from the last 15 years of drafts, which gives us a nice sample set. There have been 27 running backs selected in the first round since 2008, although things are trending downward (17 of those backs were drafted from 2008-2015, compared to just 10 in the last seven years).
What defines a bust is somewhat subjective, but I decided on fewer than 2 top-20 fantasy seasons. (Doing it once is nice, but if they didn't have that kind of season more than once in their career, they weren't a successful pick.) By that measure, Trent Richardson was a bust, which I think most would agree on.
So here are the results. Seven of the backs didn't have any top-20 seasons, and three others had only one. So those are your "busts." (I'm excluding Travis Etienne, pictured, since he's only played one season, and it was a top-20 campaign.) Ten of 26.
The other 16, leaving out Etienne, had at least two top-20 seasons. Ten of those 16 had three or more, and one of the guys who has only two (Najee Harris) has only played two years. Most likely, he'll get a third.
Guys with 2 or 3 top-20 seasons can be debated. Jonathan Stewart had only 2, but he had three others ranking in the top 30 and was a pretty good back for a decade -- nobody (I don't think) would call him a bust. On the other hand, Rashard Mendenhall also had 2, but I don't think anyone views him as a great first-round pick. C.J. Spiller had one top-20 season, so he's in the bust group by this figuring, but he had two other top-30 seasons, and was a good player for a few years. So there's a gray area.
But anyway: 2-plus top-20 PPR seasons is a non-bust for our purposes here. If we put Etienne into the non-bust group, that's 17 of 27 first-round running backs who had multiple top-20 seasons -- 63 percent.
So if Bijan gets selected in the first round next week, let's say there's slightly more than a 60-40 chance he hits, and has multiple very good fantasy seasons. Not a sure thing, but could be worse.
Table below shows all the top-20 seasons by the 20 first-round backs from the last 15 years who had at least one. For the other seven -- from Felix Jones to Clyde Edwards-Helaire -- I've included their best fantasy seasons, which show up at the bottom (table sorted by fantasy rank). Maybe CEH or injury-plagued Rashaad Penny sneak out of the bust group in the remainder of their careers. Maybe not.
FIRST-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, TOP-20 (PPR) SEASONS, 2008-2022 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
2009 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 2006 | 50 | 503 | 16 | 398.9 | 1 |
2018 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1098 | 107 | 867 | 13 | 388.0 | 1 |
2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1387 | 116 | 1005 | 19 | 471.2 | 1 |
2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 1305 | 64 | 788 | 19 | 387.3 | 1 |
2022 | Christian McCaffrey, 2TM | 1139 | 85 | 741 | 13 | 356.7 | 2 |
2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1454 | 49 | 472 | 12 | 313.6 | 2 |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1631 | 32 | 363 | 16 | 327.4 | 2 |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1307 | 91 | 721 | 15 | 385.8 | 2 |
2019 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1357 | 54 | 420 | 14 | 315.7 | 3 |
2022 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 1653 | 53 | 400 | 12 | 330.3 | 3 |
2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1200 | 74 | 467 | 10 | 300.7 | 3 |
2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 1251 | 59 | 580 | 21 | 374.1 | 3 |
2015 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1402 | 33 | 271 | 7 | 242.3 | 4 |
2013 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 1038 | 60 | 548 | 13 | 296.6 | 4 |
2018 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1434 | 77 | 567 | 9 | 331.1 | 5 |
2017 | Melvin Gordon, LAC | 1105 | 58 | 476 | 12 | 288.1 | 5 |
2022 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1312 | 57 | 338 | 10 | 284.0 | 5 |
2012 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 1244 | 43 | 459 | 8 | 261.3 | 6 |
2010 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1364 | 44 | 245 | 12 | 276.9 | 6 |
2021 | Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 812 | 69 | 454 | 10 | 255.6 | 6 |
2017 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 1124 | 58 | 416 | 12 | 284.0 | 6 |
2021 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1002 | 47 | 287 | 12 | 254.1 | 7 |
2019 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1152 | 76 | 522 | 3 | 261.4 | 7 |
2016 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 997 | 41 | 419 | 12 | 254.6 | 7 |
2011 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 1091 | 50 | 455 | 6 | 240.6 | 7 |
2010 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 1157 | 47 | 507 | 10 | 273.4 | 8 |
2020 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 1065 | 33 | 238 | 12 | 235.3 | 8 |
2016 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 1043 | 46 | 319 | 10 | 246.2 | 8 |
2018 | Melvin Gordon, LAC | 885 | 50 | 490 | 14 | 275.5 | 8 |
2012 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | 950 | 51 | 367 | 12 | 254.7 | 8 |
2011 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1047 | 57 | 418 | 4 | 227.5 | 9 |
2013 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1077 | 42 | 345 | 10 | 244.2 | 9 |
2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 435 | 80 | 651 | 7 | 230.6 | 9 |
2020 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 979 | 52 | 338 | 8 | 233.7 | 9 |
2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1106 | 21 | 188 | 10 | 210.4 | 9 |
2017 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1040 | 36 | 302 | 10 | 230.2 | 10 |
2019 | Mark Ingram, Balt. | 1018 | 26 | 247 | 15 | 246.5 | 10 |
2010 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 1273 | 23 | 167 | 13 | 245.0 | 11 |
2019 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1003 | 52 | 438 | 8 | 244.1 | 11 |
2012 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1243 | 36 | 232 | 6 | 219.5 | 12 |
2017 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 983 | 26 | 269 | 9 | 205.2 | 12 |
2021 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 872 | 54 | 348 | 9 | 230.0 | 12 |
2015 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 769 | 50 | 405 | 6 | 205.4 | 12 |
2015 | Darren McFadden, Dall. | 1089 | 40 | 328 | 3 | 201.7 | 13 |
2022 | Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 668 | 73 | 523 | 6 | 228.1 | 13 |
2020 | Melvin Gordon, Den. | 986 | 32 | 158 | 10 | 206.4 | 13 |
2022 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1034 | 41 | 229 | 10 | 227.5 | 14 |
2019 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 857 | 31 | 207 | 14 | 223.4 | 14 |
2009 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 1133 | 18 | 139 | 11 | 211.2 | 15 |
2014 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 964 | 29 | 145 | 9 | 193.9 | 15 |
2016 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 885 | 43 | 327 | 6 | 200.2 | 15 |
2009 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 1108 | 25 | 261 | 8 | 209.9 | 17 |
2013 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 1255 | 26 | 189 | 7 | 212.4 | 17 |
2022 | Travis Etienne, Jac. | 1125 | 35 | 316 | 5 | 211.1 | 17 |
2009 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 947 | 28 | 213 | 9 | 198.0 | 18 |
2010 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 779 | 37 | 372 | 8 | 200.1 | 18 |
2021 | Melvin Gordon, Den. | 918 | 28 | 213 | 10 | 201.1 | 18 |
2011 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 761 | 47 | 413 | 5 | 194.4 | 19 |
2010 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 555 | 58 | 487 | 6 | 198.2 | 20 |
2020 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 803 | 36 | 297 | 5 | 176.0 | 22 |
2011 | Beanie Wells, Ariz. | 1047 | 10 | 52 | 10 | 179.9 | 23 |
2010 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 800 | 48 | 450 | 2 | 185.0 | 23 |
2013 | Donald Brown, Ind. | 537 | 27 | 214 | 8 | 150.1 | 28 |
2019 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 912 | 12 | 94 | 7 | 154.6 | 31 |
2021 | Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 749 | 6 | 48 | 6 | 121.7 | 42 |
2012 | David Wilson, NYG | 358 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 79.2 | 51 |
--Andy Richardson