Tomorrow is Ezekiel Elliott's 28th birthday, and he's still looking for a new employer. He's one of several veteran running backs of about that age without a job, another big name being Leonard Fournette (who recently worked out for New England). It's an increasingly suspect age for production from the position.
It didn't use to be that way, but now it's fair to say that 28 is the new 30. Squeezing another strong season out of a 28-year-old or older running back is less likely than it used to be.
I pulled all the 28-plus running backs out of our big file since 2000. From 2000 to 2012, there were 95 running backs at least that age who put up top-25 numbers (PPR scoring); about 8 per season. Curtis Martin, Eddie George, LaDainian Tomlinson; those guys were thriving at that age.
But in the last 10 years -- 2013 to 2022 -- Just 51 running backs have put up top-25 numbers (5 per year). And it's been a steady downward trend each year. Thirty-one of those seasons (0ver 60 percent) came in 2013, 2014 and 2015. And it's been especially lean lately.
In the last five years, only 8 running backs aged 28 or older have finished with top-25 numbers (less than 2 per season). Those are the odds working against Fournette or Elliott being a significant back in 2023.
TOP-25 RBS, AGED 28 OR OLDER (2013-PRESENT) | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Age | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
2022 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 28 | 349 | 1538 | 33 | 398 | 13 | 308.8 | 4 |
2022 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 28 | 213 | 1121 | 59 | 395 | 7 | 254.6 | 7 |
2022 | Jerick McKinnon, K.C. | 30 | 72 | 291 | 56 | 512 | 10 | 198.3 | 20 |
2021 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl. | 30 | 153 | 618 | 52 | 548 | 11 | 234.6 | 10 |
2021 | Melvin Gordon, Den. | 28 | 203 | 918 | 28 | 213 | 10 | 201.1 | 18 |
2020 | David Johnson, Hou. | 29 | 147 | 691 | 33 | 314 | 8 | 181.5 | 21 |
2019 | Mark Ingram, Balt. | 30 | 202 | 1018 | 26 | 247 | 15 | 246.5 | 10 |
2018 | Adrian Peterson, Was. | 33 | 251 | 1042 | 20 | 208 | 8 | 193.0 | 19 |
2017 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 28 | 230 | 1124 | 58 | 416 | 12 | 284.0 | 6 |
2017 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 29 | 287 | 1138 | 59 | 448 | 8 | 265.6 | 7 |
2017 | Frank Gore, Ind. | 34 | 261 | 961 | 29 | 245 | 4 | 173.6 | 20 |
2017 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 29 | 184 | 659 | 39 | 266 | 7 | 173.5 | 21 |
2017 | Marshawn Lynch, Oak. | 31 | 207 | 891 | 20 | 151 | 7 | 166.2 | 23 |
2016 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 28 | 234 | 1267 | 50 | 356 | 14 | 298.3 | 4 |
2016 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 28 | 293 | 1287 | 53 | 377 | 12 | 295.9 | 5 |
2016 | LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 30 | 299 | 1161 | 7 | 38 | 18 | 234.9 | 9 |
2016 | Frank Gore, Ind. | 33 | 263 | 1025 | 38 | 277 | 8 | 216.2 | 12 |
2016 | Bilal Powell, NYJ | 28 | 131 | 722 | 58 | 388 | 5 | 199.0 | 17 |
2016 | Matt Forte, NYJ | 31 | 218 | 813 | 30 | 263 | 8 | 185.6 | 21 |
2016 | Darren Sproles, Phil. | 33 | 94 | 438 | 52 | 427 | 4 | 162.5 | 24 |
2015 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 30 | 327 | 1485 | 30 | 222 | 11 | 266.7 | 2 |
2015 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 30 | 98 | 336 | 80 | 755 | 9 | 243.1 | 3 |
2015 | DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. | 32 | 200 | 907 | 40 | 367 | 11 | 235.4 | 5 |
2015 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 30 | 218 | 898 | 44 | 389 | 7 | 216.7 | 8 |
2015 | Darren McFadden, Dall. | 28 | 239 | 1089 | 40 | 328 | 3 | 201.7 | 13 |
2015 | Frank Gore, Ind. | 32 | 260 | 967 | 34 | 267 | 7 | 199.4 | 14 |
2015 | James Starks, G.B. | 29 | 148 | 601 | 43 | 392 | 5 | 172.3 | 21 |
2015 | Rashad Jennings, NYG | 30 | 195 | 863 | 29 | 296 | 4 | 168.9 | 22 |
2015 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 28 | 242 | 989 | 16 | 99 | 7 | 166.8 | 23 |
2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 29 | 266 | 1038 | 102 | 808 | 10 | 350.6 | 3 |
2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 28 | 280 | 1306 | 37 | 367 | 17 | 306.3 | 4 |
2014 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 28 | 260 | 1246 | 38 | 327 | 13 | 277.6 | 5 |
2014 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 28 | 206 | 1033 | 40 | 291 | 14 | 256.4 | 7 |
2014 | Justin Forsett, Balt. | 29 | 235 | 1266 | 44 | 263 | 8 | 246.9 | 8 |
2014 | Joique Bell, Det. | 28 | 223 | 860 | 34 | 322 | 8 | 200.2 | 13 |
2014 | Fred Jackson, Buff. | 33 | 141 | 525 | 66 | 501 | 3 | 188.6 | 16 |
2014 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 31 | 255 | 1106 | 11 | 111 | 5 | 162.7 | 21 |
2014 | Darren Sproles, Phil. | 31 | 57 | 329 | 40 | 387 | 8 | 159.6 | 22 |
2014 | Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind. | 28 | 90 | 425 | 38 | 300 | 8 | 158.5 | 23 |
2013 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 28 | 289 | 1339 | 74 | 594 | 12 | 341.3 | 2 |
2013 | Reggie Bush, Det. | 28 | 223 | 1006 | 54 | 506 | 7 | 247.2 | 7 |
2013 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 28 | 279 | 1077 | 42 | 345 | 10 | 244.2 | 9 |
2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 28 | 279 | 1266 | 29 | 171 | 11 | 238.7 | 10 |
2013 | Fred Jackson, Buff. | 32 | 206 | 890 | 47 | 387 | 10 | 234.7 | 11 |
2013 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 28 | 106 | 429 | 76 | 605 | 8 | 227.4 | 12 |
2013 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 29 | 147 | 549 | 77 | 513 | 5 | 213.2 | 16 |
2013 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 30 | 276 | 1128 | 16 | 141 | 9 | 196.9 | 18 |
2013 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 28 | 234 | 803 | 43 | 314 | 5 | 189.1 | 19 |
2013 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 30 | 53 | 220 | 71 | 604 | 4 | 177.4 | 23 |
2013 | Rashad Jennings, Oak. | 28 | 163 | 733 | 36 | 292 | 6 | 174.5 | 24 |
2013 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 30 | 201 | 843 | 26 | 333 | 4 | 167.6 | 25 |
It's a young man's game, especially at running back. Fantasy starters at 28 or 29; good luck. A cautionary note for the three guys who did it last year (Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones and Jerick McKinnon, who was more receiver than runner anyway), too.
--Andy Richardson