Taking an early look at 2024 opponents, it looks like the easiest schedules will belong to the teams in the NFC South, while the teams in the AFC North will play the hardest schedules. That’s what the numbers indicate.
The Saints and Falcons both will play schedules against teams that went a combined 131-158 last year. If teams play just like they did last year (which won’t happen) those teams will have the easiest schedules, and the Panthers and Bucs also rank in the top 5.
The Browns, Ravens and Steelers, meanwhile, project to play the hardest schedules. Cleveland’s 17 games will be against opponents that went 158-131 last year (an exactly flip of the Saint-Falcon schedules). The AFC North last year became the first division with all four teams finishing with winning records. So Deshaun Watson (pictured) faces an uphill climb as he tries to re-establish himself as an elite quarterback.
While these two divisions are on opposite ends of the schedule difficulty scale, almost half of these schedules are identical. All of the teams in these divisions will play eight games against the teams in the AFC West and NFC East. (My general lean is that it doesn’t look like a particularly notable year for strength of schedule.)
2024 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
New Orleans | 131 | 158 | 0 | .453 |
Atlanta | 131 | 158 | 0 | .453 |
Chicago | 135 | 154 | 0 | .467 |
Carolina | 135 | 154 | 0 | .467 |
Tampa Bay | 138 | 151 | 0 | .478 |
LA Chargers | 138 | 151 | 0 | .478 |
Arizona | 141 | 148 | 0 | .488 |
Seattle | 141 | 148 | 0 | .488 |
Miami | 141 | 148 | 0 | .488 |
Tennessee | 142 | 147 | 0 | .491 |
Philadelphia | 142 | 147 | 0 | .491 |
Indianapolis | 142 | 147 | 0 | .491 |
Denver | 143 | 146 | 0 | .495 |
Minnesota | 145 | 144 | 0 | .502 |
Washington | 145 | 144 | 0 | .502 |
Cincinnati | 145 | 144 | 0 | .502 |
Kansas City | 145 | 144 | 0 | .502 |
Dallas | 146 | 143 | 0 | .505 |
San Francisco | 146 | 143 | 0 | .505 |
LA Rams | 146 | 143 | 0 | .505 |
NY Jets | 146 | 143 | 0 | .505 |
Detroit | 147 | 142 | 0 | .509 |
New England | 148 | 141 | 0 | .512 |
Jacksonville | 148 | 141 | 0 | .512 |
Las Vegas | 148 | 141 | 0 | .512 |
NY Giants | 149 | 140 | 0 | .516 |
Buffalo | 149 | 140 | 0 | .516 |
Green Bay | 152 | 137 | 0 | .526 |
Houston | 152 | 137 | 0 | .526 |
Pittsburgh | 154 | 135 | 0 | .533 |
Baltimore | 155 | 134 | 0 | .536 |
Cleveland | 158 | 131 | 0 | .547 |
If you prefer to look not at wins but points allowed, the Bears, Cowboys and Giants project to play the easiest schedules. They’ll be playing against the defenses that tended to allow the most points last year. (Chicago has the most well-rounded schedule, having also ranked in the top 5 in the win-loss category.)
Three AFC West teams will play the schedules against opponents who tended to allow the fewest points last year: Broncos, Chargers and Kansas City.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (points) | |
---|---|
Team | Points |
Chicago | 22.7 |
Dallas | 22.6 |
NY Giants | 22.5 |
Tennessee | 22.4 |
Green Bay | 22.3 |
New Orleans | 22.2 |
Minnesota | 22.2 |
Arizona | 22.1 |
Carolina | 22.0 |
Philadelphia | 22.0 |
Seattle | 22.0 |
Atlanta | 21.9 |
New England | 21.8 |
San Francisco | 21.8 |
Tampa Bay | 21.8 |
LA Rams | 21.8 |
Jacksonville | 21.8 |
Pittsburgh | 21.8 |
Washington | 21.8 |
NY Jets | 21.7 |
Indianapolis | 21.6 |
Baltimore | 21.6 |
Buffalo | 21.6 |
Cincinnati | 21.4 |
Detroit | 21.4 |
Cleveland | 21.3 |
Miami | 21.3 |
Las Vegas | 21.2 |
Houston | 21.1 |
LA Chargers | 21.0 |
Kansas City | 20.9 |
Denver | 20.8 |
—Ian Allan