Two games today and two games tomorrow. Eight teams playing, and I think it's very likely that a week from tomorrow, seven of them will be in the offseason. Seattle is the heavy favorite to still be playing, but you never know -- Pittsburgh, Kansas City and maybe even Cincinnati are reasonable possibilities.
I've already had to tinker with my playoff lineup laid out yesterday. Marshawn Lynch is out for this week, so I can no longer count on him for next week, either. No way I'm going to waste a roster spot on a player in the wild-card round who won't even play. Nor can I use another Seattle back, since that player is valueless if Lynch IS able to play. Similar issues exist for Pittsburgh, while the other teams either use committees, have awful matchups, or are likely one and done. Let's talk our way through it.
Kansas City at Houston: Ian likes the Texans here, and no question their defense has played great the second half of the season, while Kansas City's offense has underperformed down the stretch. But I'm in the camp that believes Kansas City has sort of managed things conservatively the last few weeks, and will turn it up a notch in the playoffs. A dangerous game, if so, but I just don't see the Texans doing anything of note on offense. They won't run. They might not have a fully healthy Nate Washington, so there's just one wide receiver to account for. Don't like the Texans.
Kansas City will use a committee at tailback and only has two viable receivers, so I don't see them scoring a ton, either. But I think they'll win this one something like 23-14, and move on.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The defenses will also show up for this one. Cincinnati's is really good, and won't need to commit extra guys to shut down Fitzgerald Toussaint. They'll try to keep Pittsburgh's wide receivers in check and likely fail, so I'm liking Roethlisberger and his main wideouts. And Heath Miller did really well in the regular-season meetings.
Cincinnati should struggle to run on the Steelers, as well. Plus they'll use a committee, which makes using either of them undesirable. A.J. Green has killed this defense in the past and I don't see that changing, but he's working with a less accomplished quarterback, and Tyler Eifert is back to take some red-zone looks away. I'm calling this one Steelers 27, Bengals 24, and think it will be the best game of the weekend.
Seattle at Minnesota: It's seemingly a foregone conclusion that Seattle wins this game, which makes me nervous. The Vikings defense played well in every other game but the Seattle meeting this season, and now it's closer to full health than it was then. And weather will be a factor: a high of 3 degrees. That should help keep scoring down and maybe make turnovers and defense hugely important. Obviously they're always important, but the frigid weather could prove to be an equalizer. And Seattle won't have Marshawn Lynch, who suffered a setback in practice Friday, which should pretty much scotch the team's running game.
In the end, I can't bet against Russell Wilson. If it's a close, low-scoring game, he'll make the plays with his arm and his legs to pull out a win. I don't like Adrian Peterson doing much against Seattle's defensive front, and I don't like Teddy Bridgewater in cold weather. Don't like Minnesota's passing game regardless, actually. I'm calling it 20-17, Seattle.
Green Bay at Washington: A game with a lot of split opinions. You've got those who think Green Bay will win for reasons like Washington not beating any good teams all season, and Green Bay's defense being pretty solid for most of the year. And I suppose that they're Green Bay, with much more playoff experience and talent at some key positions like quarterback and whatnot.
On the other hand. The Packers played poorly on offense for most of the season. It was a lesser passing game, with wide receivers who disappointed and a line that didn't protect Aaron Rodgers very well. And the running backs regularly wound up in the doghouse for fumbling and so forth. And the best two and maybe three receivers in this game are on the Washington side: Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Kirk Cousins played well at home all year, too.
I've gone back and forth on this one, but am ultimately thinking homefield makes the difference. Washington 26, Green Bay 23.
Enjoy the games.