Just two games to preview, and they don't start until the weekend is almost over; 3 p.m. Sunday here on the East Coast. Or as it's known in the news, Smack Dab in the Path of the Storm of the Century or whatever. Not that I'm making a joke; I know it's going to be bad in some areas.
As I write this there's snow and wind and my dog is afraid to go off the deck. But we still have power and just as important the satellite is still working. Here are the two games we'll be huddling together for.
Patriots at Broncos: I'm trying really hard to find a way the Broncos win this game. I won't say it's as easy as I "hate" the Patriots, but I can't think of much I'd less rather do than read two more weeks of stories about Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and how awesome they are. This week we got stories about how wonderful Julian Edelman is. I suppose it's only matter of time before the wisdom of Bob Kraft and the lovableness of Rob Gronkowski fill the headlines. It's just too much, and as tired as everyone is of stories about Peyton Manning retiring or not, it's gotta be better than that.
The problem, of course, is that Denver's offense has been a lesser group all year. Manning is pretty much done, but he's the guy who's gotta generate enough points against a very solid New England defense to somehow get a win. Denver's definitely going to run the ball with C.J. Anderson primarily (if they've been watching the games lately) and Ronnie Hillman in a secondary role. They should do that even if those guys are struggling, because it's safer than having Manning put the ball in the air. They'll mix in some quick passes at the line of scrimmage to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, hoping those guys can dart through traffic for a big gain. The kind of plays that Thomas took in for a 2-point conversion last week.
And let's not forget Owen Daniels catching a 3-yard pass on third and 2 and immediately crumpling in a heap. That should be in the playbook.
If they have Manning throwing the ball downfield, if Manning thinks he can make those throws, this game will get ugly in a hurry. Their best chance is to not help New England's offense out; make them work for any production they get. Put a body or two on Gronkowski, study the Bills game where Buffalo's defense took him away, and hope that can work. If that happens, Edelman and probably Amendola will catch a bunch of passes, but that will happen anyway.
You'll see a lot of stories that Denver's defense will need to get pressure on Brady, and I agree. Maybe the solution is to bring the house on every play and hope they can get to him before he finds an open receiver. Not likely, but they've got to do something to make him uncomfortable back there.
I like Gronk, Edelman and C.J. Anderson in this game. Demaryius Thomas, too, since I think Denver will try a bunch of those throws near the line. But it's hard to see any outcome but New England 24, Denver 17.
Cardinals at Panthers: Now here's a game where it's not hard to make a case for either team. It's Cam Newton's year, the Panthers are home, they have a great defense, and Newton will be able to make plays on offense, to Greg Olsen (what with the Cardinals missing safety Tyrann Mathieu and softening up their defense), or by running it. Or, the Cardinals have the best all-around team in the league and three great wide receivers, and as long as Carson Palmer is on his game, Arizona will move the ball and score plenty. And no one can stop Larry Fitzgerald in the postseason.
What I can't shake is the memory of how poor Palmer was for most of last week's game. His touchdown pass at the end of regulation was dumb luck. He could easily have been picked several times in the fourth quarter, and it would be Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in this game. The Panthers can slow down David Johnson and get pressure on Palmer, and once that happens it doesn't matter how great his receivers are, because he won't have the time or comfort in the pocket to deliver the ball accurately.
Palmer had an MVP-caliber season and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he'll play well. But the Panthers are home, they're relatively healthy, and it is Newton's year. He's going to be able to move the offense up and down the field, one way or another (and that was quite a performance by Jonathan Stewart last week, as well). I'm thinking a high-scoring game, so I'm using all Cardinals and Panthers in my leagues. But when it comes down to it, I have more confidence in Newton making the plays to win this game at the end than Palmer. Although Fitzgerald will step up for Arizona, again.
So maybe a who has the ball last type of game? I'm calling it Carolina 30, Arizona 26. And should be a classic, and whoever wins will give us two weeks of interesting stories about players that we haven't seen in a Super Bowl before (Fitzgerald the lone exception). And who can't get behind that.
Enjoy the games!
--Andy Richardson