It's usually the best NFL weekend of the year. You've got four teams good enough during the regular season to earn a bye, facing four teams good enough to win playoff games last week. If form holds, probably three of the home teams will win. But the mold has already been broken with four road teams winning last week, so who knows. Anything is possible.
Kansas City at Patriots: This looked like a lock for the Patriots, but it's been a rough week in New England. Rob Gronkowski is questionable with knee, back and perhaps off-field concerns, unless we're too assume that drug use was occurring at his house that he was in no way involved with. That may be more of a down-the-road concern, but one imagines Bill Belichick isn't too thrilled with his involvement. In any case, word is Gronk will play, but he's not fully healthy. Julian Edelman seems to be healthy, which makes him a key player here; maybe he's out there catching 8-10 passes and helping New England move up and down the field. James White is the Patriots running back to consider. You're taking a risk if you assume Brandon LaFell will do much as the No. 2, because Danny Amendola could actually be the 2nd-most targeted. I'm using Gronk and Edelman, and actually I have no choice -- had to pick my entire roster before the postseason started, and couldn't have foreseen Antonio Brown not being available.
Kansas City probably won't have Jeremy Maclin, and he can't safely be used even if active. Travis Kelce should lead the way in targets and catches. Running back committee, so you're just hoping your guy is the main one if you use either. Spencer Ware best bet, probably, though he's got an injury, too. I'm using David Johnson and Fitzgerald Toussaint in most leagues. I'm calling it New England 24, Kansas City 17.
Packers at Cardinals: Arizona should win this game easily, but you never know. They had a great season, they're home, rested, and healthy, and they clobbered the Packers a few weeks ago. But it's 0-0, and the Packers have a really good quarterback and a credible defense, at least a times. If they get up early, like Seattle did on Arizona in Week 17, maybe the Cardinals start to press and nerves set in. Definitely the Packers have the playoff experience edge.
That being said, it's a pretty good Cardinals defense, and a Packers offense that's only really had one good game of late, and that against a lousy Washington defense. I see no reason to look at last week and say, Yeah, Green Bay has put it together, though I know Packers fans are doing just that. The Cardinals should have some success covering Green Bay receivers and maybe forcing a turnover or two, and they can definitely move the ball. David Johnson might be key to this game, and I kind of like Larry Fitzgerald stepping up, too. Though if you're choosing an Arizona wideout, they've got three excellent choices and any one is capable of having a big game (leaving the other two out of the fun. Arizona 30, Green Bay 24.
Seahawks at Panthers: Seattle got their miracle last week, but I think it ends here. It's a great matchup of star quarterbacks and strong defenses, but I like Carolina's defense a little bit more, and don't think Seattle is going to be able to shut Cam Newton down. Running games, I will pass on both Jonathan Stewart and Marshawn Lynch. Very tough to run in this game for anyone but the quarterbacks.
Seattle might have some success against Carolina's secondary. That's a worry, with the Panthers down a couple of cornerbacks. But I think Newton will be able to answer, with his arm or his legs. I think it's his year, or at least his week in this matchup. This should be a fun game, I'm thinking maybe a little higher-scoring than most believe. Carolina 27, Seattle 24.
Steelers at Broncos: It's fitting in the year of a ridiculous number of injuries that the Steelers would go into this game missing a sizable number of key starters and for that matter backups (since that's what DeAngelo Williams was). Word is that Ben Roethlisberger did just fine at practice on Friday, so maybe he'll be OK moving the offense with the pass, or as OK he can be missing Antonio Brown and facing maybe the league's best defense. I suspect Bryant, Wheaton, Miller and Toussaint will catch a lot of passes, collectively, and am using a couple of them in every PPR league, under the idea that Pittsburgh won't run much at all and will be throwing a lot of short passes.
For Denver, it's hard to have much confidence in Peyton Manning. Hasn't played well all year, hasn't played well in the postseason pretty much ever. But Pittsburgh has some cornerback issues, and they're not going to stay with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders all game. So I'm high on those guys, relatively, and have a gut feeling about C.J. Anderson (of the two Denver running backs). And I think I'm using Owen Daniels somewhere, since he played his best ball with Manning at quarterback. I think this one is Denver 26, Pittsburgh 20, and even that might be giving the Steelers too much credit.
Enjoy the games.