Devon Achane screamed up rookie draft boards after being selected in the third round by the Dolphins. At the peak, his ADP was 1.08 (it has since settled to 1.12). Though he was always a well-regarded prospect, he was never going to go in the middle of the first before he became a Dolphin. I get it, Miami’s a flashy spot for a running back – especially a speedster like Achane – but is Achane really worth a first-round pick? I don’t think so.
You can’t talk about Achane without mentioning his size; he’s tiny. Coming in at 5-foot-9 and 188 pounds, Achane is noticeably smaller than his peers – the average weight of the other backs drafted this year is 207 pounds. Achane will not be heavily used. There have only been five running backs drafted since 2015 weighing under 190 pounds – Raymond Calais, Tarik Cohen, Demetric Felton, Donnel Pumphrey, and Deuce Vaughn. Not many household names are on that list.
Running backs as small as Achane almost never produce at a high level. Their bodies just cannot physically handle the abuse that comes with the position. You could only project Achane to be a third-down back, but I’m not sure he can do that either.
To be a third-down back in the NFL, a player must be able to pass block adequately. Achane cannot; on films, he frequently whiffs on his chips. While this is an area that backs improve on, Achane is not starting at a good spot.
Not that he doesn’t have some redeeming qualities. Achane’s got elite speed, posting a 4.32 at the Combine. That including a 1.51 split over the first 10 yards, an unusually good acceleration number. Couple that with his route running ability and you can see why people got excited about him in PPR leagues.
But are these enough to overcome his size and pass-blocking deficiencies? I’m definitely not confident enough to spend a first-round pick on him. His value has been dramatically overinflated by his landing spot. Everyone is hoping McDaniel will elevate Miami’s ground game, and it’s a running back room devoid of a true No. 1 back. That blinds a lot of people to Achane’s flaws. But always remember the first rule in drafting rookies – talent over situation, every time. Miami might be the best spot for a running back to land right now, but Achane is not the player to take advantage of it.
—Billy Olsson Olsson plays in 20 money dynasty leagues, as well as drafting best-ball teams. As a proponent of the statistical aspect of fantasy football, he uses machine learning to build forecasting models that predict the performance of incoming rookies. A native of Dallas, he is a Cowboys fan.