Green Bay against Minnesota is an unusual game in that it features the offense that has lost a league-high 9 fumbles (the Vikings) against the only team that hasn’t yet lost a fumble (the Packers). But I don’t think that should be used as a significant factor when considering defenses to stream in Week 8.
I have looked some at fumbles. As far as I can tell, it’s a stat category that involves far more luck than skill. I would say, in fact, that the seemingly mistake-prone Vikings aren’t any more likely to lose a fumble in this game than the so-far error-proof Packers.
Case in point. In the last 10 years, 34 teams have lost at least 8 fumbles in the first half of the season. Those teams went on to lose an average of 4.47 fumbles in the rest of those seasons.
Nothing too surprising about those results – regression to the mean and all.
| 8+ FUMBLES IN FIRST EIGHT G | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | 1-8 | ROS | Tot |
| 2012 | Kansas City | 15 | 2 | 17 |
| 2015 | Cleveland | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| 2020 | Dallas | 11 | 2 | 13 |
| 2016 | San Diego | 11 | 3 | 14 |
| 2013 | Denver | 11 | 5 | 16 |
| 2019 | NY Giants | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| 2017 | Washington | 10 | 4 | 14 |
| 2012 | Denver | 10 | 4 | 14 |
| 2012 | Philadelphia | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| 2023 | Minnesota | 9 | ? | ? |
| 2021 | Kansas City | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| 2019 | Philadelphia | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| 2018 | Jacksonville | 9 | 7 | 16 |
| 2018 | Philadelphia | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| 2016 | San Francisco | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| 2015 | Tennessee | 9 | 7 | 16 |
| 2014 | Dallas | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| 2014 | NY Giants | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| 2013 | NY Giants | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| 2021 | San Francisco | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 2020 | Washington | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 2019 | Carolina | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 2018 | Green Bay | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 2018 | San Francisco | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| 2017 | Chicago | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 2017 | LA Rams | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 2016 | NY Giants | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 2015 | Arizona | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 2015 | Detroit | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 2015 | Oakland | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 2013 | Minnesota | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 2013 | Pittsburgh | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 2013 | Seattle | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 2012 | Buffalo | 8 | 9 | 17 |
But consider also teams that have lost only 1-2 fumbles in the first half of the last 10 seasons. There have been 50 of them, and they went on to lose an average of 4.67 fumbles in the second half of those season. They lost more fumbles, on average, than the teams that seemingly couldn’t get out of their own way.
It hardly seems possible. It implies that not only is luck involved in losing fumbles, that that it’s a completely luck-driven stat category.
The only explanation I could cook up, is that when a team is averaging a fumble per game, that would become a point of emphasis in practice. Players would be instructed to hold the ball differently and more carefully in crucial situations, doing a better job of tucking it away. Quarterbacks might spend extra time practicing taking snaps.
With teams that had hardly any fumbles, on the other hand, they might logically conclude (consciously or otherwise) that their work was complete in that area of the game – that there was no need to work on or remind players of the importance of ball security.
Whatever the reason, I’m not selecting defenses that are playing against the Vikings, thinking that they’ll be more likely to drop the ball or allow it to get punched out of their hands. And I similarly won’t be avoiding using defenses that are playing against Green Bay.
To me, Jordan Love in particular looks like a quarterback who’s overdue to put the ball on the ground, given his experience and playing style.
| 1-2 FUMBLES IN FIRST EIGHT G | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | 1-8 | ROS | Tot |
| 2023 | Green Bay | 0 | ? | ? |
| 2022 | Arizona | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 2022 | Dallas | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 2022 | Houston | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 2022 | Las Vegas | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2022 | Minnesota | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 2022 | Philadelphia | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| 2022 | Washington | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 2021 | Arizona | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2021 | Cincinnati | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 2021 | LA Chargers | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 2021 | LA Rams | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 2021 | Las Vegas | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| 2021 | Seattle | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2020 | Chicago | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2020 | Detroit | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| 2020 | Green Bay | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 2020 | Indianapolis | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2020 | Miami | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 2020 | Minnesota | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| 2020 | NY Jets | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 2020 | Tennessee | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 2019 | Arizona | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2019 | New Orleans | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2019 | Tennessee | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 2018 | Atlanta | 2 | 9 | 11 |
| 2018 | Cincinnati | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 2018 | Denver | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 2018 | Kansas City | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 2018 | LA Rams | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 2018 | Seattle | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2017 | Green Bay | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 2017 | Kansas City | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2017 | LA Chargers | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2017 | Miami | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 2017 | Seattle | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 2016 | Atlanta | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2016 | Buffalo | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 2016 | Detroit | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 2016 | Pittsburgh | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2015 | Denver | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| 2015 | Pittsburgh | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 2015 | San Francisco | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 2014 | Denver | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 2014 | Minnesota | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2014 | San Diego | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 2013 | Cleveland | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 2013 | New Orleans | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 2013 | Tennessee | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 2012 | Atlanta | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 2012 | Baltimore | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 2012 | Houston | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
Note: When I first started pulling up these numbers, I used data going back to 2002. There are have been 60 teams since 2002 that have lost 9-plus fumbles. They have averaged 5.95 fumbles in the second halves of their seasons. That’s about 1 fumble more than 77 teams in 2002-22 that have lost 0-2 fumbles in their first eight games (4.84 for that group).
Also note that the league switched to a 17-game schedule three ago. That makes it harder to define the halfway point of the season. For this study, I used the first eight games of the season for the first half, and the remaining games for the second half (with those 2021-22 teams getting a bonus ninth game in the second half). Admittedly, that’s not ideal. If I were writing it up properly, I would eliminate the 9th game for those most-recent teams, giving them two eight-game chunks.
—Ian Allan