Yesterday's article about Israel Abanikanda got me thinking about running backs drafted in the later rounds, say 4th through 7th. How likely is it that those players wind up making a rookie impact, and how much better do their prospects look in their second seasons?
Reasonably, the more talented players are selected earlier, but there's more to it than that. Earlier picks get more opportunities, either because they earn them, or because teams choose to fast-track those players into the starting lineup. Later-round picks are going to start out behind ones selected earlier, and are more often fighting just to make it onto the 53-man roster, and earn special teams snaps -- never mind a starting job.
Since 2000, there have been 357 running backs selected in rounds 4-7, so about 15 per season. A significant rookie impact -- I went with a top-30 season at the position in PPR league -- from those players is pretty rare. And because it's rare, we know all the names, guys like Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy and Mike Anderson. And the later the round, the less likely those guys are going to do anything.
Since 2000, exactly 17 running backs selected in rounds 4-7 have finished with top-30 numbers as rookies. And 10 of those players were fourth-rounders (so from this year, that would be Bears' rookie Roschon Johnson, pictured). Just seven from the fifth round on in the last 23 years.
Note, however, that four of those top-30 backs (two fourth-rounders, a fifth and a sixth) were from the last two years: Michael Carter, Elijah Mitchell, Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier. So maybe the tide is turning a little bit.
| ROOKIE RBS POSTING TOP-30 NUMBERS, 2000-PRESENT (RDS 4-7) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Year | Player | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 6 | 2012 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 335 | 1613 | 11 | 77 | 13 | 258.0 | 7 |
| 5 | 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 252 | 1313 | 29 | 298 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 |
| 6 | 2000 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 297 | 1487 | 23 | 169 | 15 | 280.6 | 11 |
| 4 | 2003 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 238 | 1031 | 47 | 351 | 8 | 233.2 | 14 |
| 5 | 2013 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 250 | 973 | 26 | 141 | 8 | 185.4 | 21 |
| 4 | 2022 | Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 220 | 939 | 30 | 165 | 5 | 170.4 | 25 |
| 4 | 2011 | Roy Helu, Was. | 151 | 640 | 49 | 379 | 3 | 168.9 | 25 |
| 6 | 2013 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 118 | 652 | 39 | 371 | 4 | 165.3 | 26 |
| 6 | 2021 | Elijah Mitchell, S.F. | 207 | 963 | 19 | 137 | 6 | 165.0 | 26 |
| 4 | 2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 217 | 721 | 18 | 130 | 7 | 145.1 | 27 |
| 4 | 2018 | Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 85 | 314 | 63 | 425 | 4 | 160.9 | 28 |
| 4 | 2017 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 87 | 370 | 53 | 353 | 4 | 154.4 | 28 |
| 4 | 2016 | Devontae Booker, Den. | 174 | 612 | 31 | 265 | 5 | 148.7 | 29 |
| 4 | 2015 | Javorius Allen, Balt. | 137 | 514 | 45 | 353 | 3 | 149.7 | 29 |
| 4 | 2021 | Michael Carter, NYJ | 147 | 639 | 36 | 325 | 4 | 156.4 | 29 |
| 4 | 2015 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 148 | 537 | 22 | 279 | 7 | 147.6 | 30 |
| 5 | 2022 | Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 210 | 1035 | 16 | 139 | 4 | 159.4 | 30 |
The good news for those of us scooping these players up in dynasty leagues is that things get better in year 2. For this table, I also included the undrafted guys who fought their way onto rosters as rookies -- Arian Foster, C.J. Anderson.
Since 2000, there have been 34 running backs drafted from the fourth round on (or undrafted) who finished with top-30 numbers in year 2. So more patience is required, but on average about 1-2 of those lightly regarded players will hit by their second seasons.
| RBS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS IN YEAR 2, 2000-PRESENTED (RDS 4-7 OR UFA) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Year | Player | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 4 | 2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 265 | 1056 | 73 | 578 | 14 | 320.4 | 1 |
| FA | 2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 327 | 1616 | 66 | 604 | 18 | 396.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 2004 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 302 | 1188 | 68 | 588 | 14 | 329.6 | 3 |
| 4 | 2022 | Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 210 | 1040 | 69 | 421 | 6 | 251.1 | 8 |
| 4 | 2018 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 99 | 444 | 71 | 725 | 8 | 240.0 | 11 |
| 5 | 2016 | Jay Ajayi, Mia. | 260 | 1272 | 27 | 151 | 8 | 217.3 | 11 |
| FA | 2014 | C.J. Anderson, Den. | 179 | 849 | 34 | 324 | 10 | 211.3 | 11 |
| 5 | 2009 | Tim Hightower, Ariz. | 143 | 598 | 63 | 428 | 8 | 213.6 | 14 |
| 5 | 2017 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 276 | 1122 | 23 | 125 | 9 | 201.7 | 15 |
| 7 | 2018 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 247 | 1151 | 20 | 163 | 9 | 205.4 | 15 |
| FA | 2005 | Willie Parker, Pitt. | 255 | 1202 | 18 | 218 | 5 | 190.0 | 18 |
| 4 | 2006 | Marion Barber, Dall. | 135 | 654 | 23 | 196 | 16 | 204.0 | 19 |
| 5 | 2017 | Alex Collins, Balt. | 212 | 973 | 23 | 187 | 6 | 175.0 | 19 |
| 6 | 2014 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 201 | 660 | 46 | 395 | 5 | 181.5 | 19 |
| FA | 2008 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 129 | 625 | 31 | 284 | 12 | 193.9 | 19 |
| 4 | 2018 | Marlon Mack, Ind. | 195 | 908 | 17 | 103 | 10 | 182.1 | 20 |
| 6 | 2013 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 276 | 1275 | 9 | 78 | 7 | 186.3 | 20 |
| FA | 2019 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 224 | 1011 | 35 | 196 | 7 | 197.7 | 20 |
| 4 | 2003 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 215 | 957 | 21 | 146 | 9 | 185.3 | 21 |
| FA | 2002 | Marcel Shipp, Ariz. | 188 | 834 | 38 | 413 | 9 | 216.7 | 22 |
| 4 | 2008 | LeRon McClain, Balt. | 232 | 902 | 19 | 123 | 11 | 187.5 | 23 |
| FA | 2012 | Joique Bell, Det. | 82 | 414 | 52 | 485 | 3 | 159.9 | 23 |
| 5 | 2018 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 133 | 728 | 26 | 206 | 9 | 173.4 | 24 |
| FA | 2001 | Jamel White, Cle. | 126 | 443 | 44 | 418 | 6 | 168.1 | 24 |
| FA | 2021 | James Robinson, Jac. | 164 | 767 | 31 | 222 | 8 | 177.9 | 24 |
| 7 | 2020 | Myles Gaskin, Mia. | 142 | 584 | 41 | 388 | 5 | 168.2 | 25 |
| FA | 2018 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 106 | 554 | 39 | 404 | 6 | 170.8 | 25 |
| FA | 2010 | Danny Woodhead, 2TM | 97 | 547 | 34 | 379 | 6 | 162.6 | 25 |
| FA | 2001 | Maurice Smith, Atl. | 237 | 760 | 19 | 230 | 6 | 154.0 | 25 |
| 4 | 2005 | Mewelde Moore, Min. | 155 | 662 | 37 | 339 | 4 | 161.1 | 26 |
| FA | 2018 | Matt Breida, S.F. | 153 | 814 | 27 | 261 | 5 | 164.5 | 26 |
| 7 | 2009 | Justin Forsett, Sea. | 114 | 619 | 41 | 350 | 5 | 167.9 | 28 |
| 5 | 2012 | Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl. | 94 | 362 | 53 | 402 | 2 | 141.4 | 29 |
| 4 | 2004 | Onterrio Smith, Min. | 124 | 544 | 36 | 394 | 4 | 155.8 | 30 |
Maybe the most notable thing from the second table is that you're only slightly less likely to hit as an undrafted player (13) than one selected in the fourth through seventh rounds (21). There were only four undrafted rookies to put up top 30 production (James Robinson was the best, and also Phillip Lindsay, Dominic Rhodes and Branden Oliver).
Bottom line, if you're selecting one of these rookies -- especially ones drafted after the fourth round -- it should be in a keeper or dynasty format. A rookie impact is pretty rare. Year 2 is a little more promising.
--Andy Richardson